The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
November 01, 2004
California | The fight in California

This is considered a “blue state” and taken for granted that it will go for Kerry. Anecdotally, I live in Southern California and, outside of one Kerry billboard in my area, there hasn’t been much in the way of Kerry campaigning. Bush/Cheney supporters have shown more enthusiam. As I left work tonight, at the major intersection, Bush/Cheney supporters were waving signs, flags and cheering. They were a nice mix of genders, ages and races; I even spotted a couple of veterans. They were also getting a good reception from drivers who were honking and waving in response to the Bush supporters smiling spiritedness.

In 2000, Gore carried California with 53% of the popular vote to Bush’s 42%. The Los Angeles Times (registration required) is running a polling map showing, very surprisingly, that Kerry leads in California only 49% to Bush’s 42% with 9% undecided. It may turn out, even while Kerry carries California, that the vote may be much closer than 2000 and ironically, much more of the popular vote may go to Bush.

Barbara Boxer (Dem) is pretty well assured of re-election to the Senate. She leads Bill Jones (Rep) quite comfortably by 18-22 points. Mr. Jones is a well-respected public servant and has done the state of California proud during his tenure as CA’s secretary of state, but the man just is not a politician.

The real fights to be seen in California tomorrow will be on the ballot propostions. This last week alone has seen a dramatic turn around in Proposition 66, which proposes to amend CA’s 3 strikes law. (You can read more about Prop 66 here on my weblog). Only a few weeks ago, Prop 66 was polling to pass by over 65%. Last Saturday a Field poll was released which covered the previous week when the No on 66 campaign released ads lead by Gov. Schwarzenegger hit the media. In the first four days Prop 66 lead 58% to 34%, in the last three which included the Wednesday airing of the Govenor’s ads, the margin had narrowed to 48% to 47%.

Other propositions of interest will be 71 (embryonic stem cell research bond $3 billion)and 69 (DNA database for convicted felons).

There are sixteen propositions on the ballot. I will endeavor to cover all of them over the next day.



Posted by Darleen at November 1, 2004 10:18 PM | TrackBack
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