The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
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November 01, 2004
Polls | Final CNN/Gallup Poll: Bush By 2 Points, BUT ...

The final CNN/Gallup national poll, via CNN TV:

  • Bush 49%
  • Kerry 47%
  • Nader/Other 1%
  • Undecided 3%

+/- 3 %.

BUT … when Gallup makes its statistical estimate of how undecideds will break, the race is …. DEAD EVEN:

  • Bush 49%
  • Kerry 49%
  • Nader 2%

Buy lots of beer folks; tomorrow night’s gonna’ be a long night.



Posted by Alan at November 1, 2004 04:31 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Have a look at the Horserace blog, though — Gallup is giving undecideds to Kerry by 9/1, but that doesn’t match what little exit polling and other polling there is. If undecideds go Bush/Kerry 50/50, Bush wins by 51.5; if undecideds only go to Kerry by 8/1, Bush is still barely ahead.

Posted by: Charlie (Colorado) [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 1, 2004 05:12 PM

Agree, the methodology is iffy. Everything I’ve seen inicates that contrary to conventional wisdom the undecideds are breaking for Bush. My guess is that many who are undecided at this point find themselves in that condition because they don’t like Bush but don’t trust Kerry to handle the war. As greater and greater attention in the late campaign has centered on war issues that conflict just keeps getting brough back up and, in final analysis, they are choosing the “safer” way of going with the devil they know.

Posted by: submandave [TypeKey Profile Page] at November 1, 2004 06:40 PM

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