As the election looms the political scene in North Dakota is…predictable. North Dakota is a crimson “red” state that has voted approximately 2-1 in favor of the Republican presidential candidate since time out of mind. At least as long as this humble blogger can remember. Noises have been made (mostly coming from local Kerry campaigners) about an erosion of support for Bush in the upcoming election. That may well be true but a simple “erosion” in support isn’t likely to be enough. It would require a complete collapse in support for the President in this state in order for Kerry to be awarded its three electoral votes.

Despite being a red state North Dakota does have an all-Democratic delegation in the US Congress. This year the state’s two senators, Byron Dorgan and Earl Pomeroy, are up for re-election. Challenging them are Republicans Duane Sand and Mike Liffrig.

Liffrig and Sand have campaigned hard in the state and have challenged Dorgan and Pomeroy on a number of issues. Liffrig in particular has run a hard-nosed campaign against Dorgan who came under a small amount of fire in this conservative state for appearing Michael Moore’s film Fahrenheit 9/11. Despite that, Dorgan and Pomeroy are heavily favored to win in a state where an incumbent congressman hasn’t lost an election since Kent Conrad was elected to the House of Representatives in 1986.

The state gubernatorial race stacks up essentially the same. North Dakota tends to elect governors and stick with them until that politician either retires or moves to a new political office. Much like congressional races in this state, the incumbents almost always win. This year the incumbent is Republican John Hoeven. His opponent is Democratic challenger Joe Satrom.

Hoeven has made progress on several key economic issues in the state and, given North Dakota’s historical voting trends and party preference stated above, isn’t likely to lose this race.

So, in summary, North Dakota’s political leadership will more than likely remain largely the same after November 2nd. But surprises do happen, even in North Dakota, so we’ll all be keeping a close eye on the polls.

Cross-posted here.