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2004 US Presidential Election
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October 09, 2004
Polls | TIME Poll: 45% Bush – 45% Kerry

Also, Kerry leads among women, in “likeability,” and the Veep debate had little to no impact. From Noticias.info (Spain):

George Bush and John Kerry are again deadlocked, 45% Bush – 45% Kerry, among likely voters in the three-way race, as they head into tonight’s town hall meeting, according to a TIME Poll taken Oct. 6-7. Nader is down to 3%.

On being “likeable,” a key strength for Bush in 2000, Bush now trails Kerry, 70% - 65%. (Bush had a slight 4 point lead on likeability before the debate.) Bush still leads Kerry by a wide margin, 81% - 42% on “sticking to his positions.”

Just before the first debate last week, Bush was up by 6 points among likely voters in the TIME Poll. Kerry’s win last Thursday (59%-23%) not only tied the race, but 30% of voters said that they were more likely to vote for Kerry because of the debate. This compares to only 14% more likely to vote for Bush.

A key reason for Kerry’s resurgence was that he recaptured a large lead among female voters. Females now support Kerry over Bush by 12 points, 50%-38%. Pre-debate, the TIME Poll found women split evenly, 44% Kerry, 43% Bush. By contrast, in early August, Kerry led among women by 14 points. Bush is now up 16 points among males, 51% Bush, 35% Kerry.

Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Dick Cheney and John Edwards had little impact, according to the TIME Poll. Despite Cheney’s small winning edge over Edwards (33%-28%), equal numbers of voters said the debates made them more likely to vote for Bush (15%) or Kerry (16%), and 68% said it had no impact.

Methodology: October 6-7, 2004 among a random sample of 1211 adults throughout America. The random sample includes 1024 reported registered voters and 886 likely voters. The margin of error for registered voters is approximately +/-3 percentage points. The margin of error for likely voters is approximately +/- 4% points.

Likely voters reported party identifications are 36% Democrat, 32% Republican, 23% Independents. Registered voters party affiliations are 36% Democrat, 31% Republican, 24% Independent.



Posted by Alan at October 9, 2004 08:24 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I checked the Polling Report web site and found the listing for the Time Poll Report referred in this report as Bush being up by 1% and not tied as listed in this post:

Time Poll conducted by Schulman, Ronca & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs. Oct. 6-7, 2004. N=1,024 registered voters nationwide (MoE ± 3); 886 likely voters (MoE ± 4). NOTE: Time magazine typically reports Time Poll election trial heat results without leaners. So that they are consistent with how most national poll results are reported, the Time Poll trial heats on PollingReport.com are shown with leaners included (when available).

.

“Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats, and George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans. For whom would you vote: Kerry and Edwards, or Bush and Cheney?” If undecided: “Even though you haven’t made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Kerry or Bush?” Options rotated

.

Bush/Cheney Kerry/Edwards Other(vol.) Unsure

Among likely voters:
10/6-7/04
47% 46% 0% 6%
9/21-23/04
49% 45% 2% 4%

I’m not sure where this post’s numbers came from.

Posted by: steve [TypeKey Profile Page] at October 9, 2004 11:44 PM

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