Did you guys really think that post-convention bump was going to last ? Did you really think that George Bush could hold his own in a debate with John Kerry ? MOMENTUM is a beautiful thing. Maybe you should send out Dick Cheney to turn things around ROFL.

Posted by: rdelephant at October 7, 2004 07:22 PM

Can someone tell me why/how a survey of 944 people is predictive of the results of a poll that will involve millions?

And I ask this regardless of who is in the lead.

Posted by: minarchist at October 7, 2004 08:03 PM

Minarchist,

Did you ask that when nedia others were trumpeting Bush’s 15 pt. lead?

Posted by: derby at October 7, 2004 10:16 PM

I’ll try again - this time without hitting send before I finish editing:

minarchist,

Did you ask that when the media were trumpeting Bush’s 15 pt. lead?

Posted by: derby at October 7, 2004 10:18 PM

4 points difference with a margin of error spread
of 6 points does not give either a lead.

For example Rasmussen Poll for today
is

Bush Kerry
Today 47.8 46.7

Election Projections is

: Bush 50.2%, Kerry 48.0%

and

Electoral Vote Predictor

Kerry 253 Bush 264
(they don’t give percentages)

One is probably ahead hard to tell from the figures
which for certain,

Posted by: Dan Kauffman at October 7, 2004 10:24 PM

Derby: on your third try, you can read my entire post before replying.

Yes, I am asking this question about polls in general, regardless of who they’re trumpeting. I asked it a month(?) ago when Bush was ahead, even if I didn’t post here about it. While those numbers suggested good news to me, I wasn’t about to get cocky about them, because then, as now, I don’t know enough about the science of polling to believe any of it. I’d also like to know the history of presidential polls over the months leading to an election, and how they correlated to the winners and their percentages of the vote. Got any links for that kinda stuff?

Posted by: minarchist at October 8, 2004 12:31 AM

For those who need a real large “poll” fix ;-)

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Posted by: Dan Kauffman at October 8, 2004 02:25 AM

..thanks Dan..did you notice it was tabulated with and without the running mate..why..??

Posted by: Rob_NC at October 8, 2004 08:11 AM

There is one more debate comming up, but I think Kerry is going to win this one as well as George hasnt been able to really find his voice. The point slide will probably go up a bit more and kerry might hit another 5 points. What will be interesting is to see if the unseen factor that were all secretly dreading makes its move before election day, and which way it will swing votes.

I have voted in elections involving Reagan, Dukakis (TANK!), Clinton, and Bush’s. I despise this election more than any other I have ever seen or even heard about in history. One candidates main platform is fear, and the other is bankrolling on hatred. I hope Mccain/Powell take this ticket on a write in.

Posted by: Ronin at October 8, 2004 10:05 AM

It’s so nice to have RDE’s nonsense again. I’ for one have missed the pundit of pointless posts of late.

But RDE, you just can’t miss an opportunity to gloat, eh?

And Derby, does your question have a point?

I didn’t think so.

Posted by: skip at October 8, 2004 10:41 AM

Its’ too early to gloat. But I seem to recall several pundits on this Post who thought that Kerry was done after the Swiftvet ads dropped him down 8 points or so. I was just pointing out how wrong they were. The fact that it annoyed Skippy is a nice bonus, however.

Posted by: rdelephant at October 8, 2004 05:54 PM