All these polls are bunk. Registered voters, potential voters, likely voters, soccer moms or Nascar dads, it’s all bunk. The only tally that matters is the ELECTORAL vote.

Kerry could win his states by 99% and Bush could win his by a mere 1%, the percentage doesn’t friggin matter. Winner-takes-all in each state but one or two. The only polls that will matter are state by state. There is no such thing as the POPULAR vote in a presidential race.

Posted by: old_timer at October 4, 2004 03:00 PM

Polls and Pseudo-Polls certainly do matter. For proof of which, just read the drivel that gets posted here on What They Really Mean, every time one of them changes even a tad.

What they do Not mean is that either Will/Will Not win the election five weeks hence. That question was and remains up in the air — just as it always has. Those who claimed, immediately after the Mission Accomplished photo op, that the Ds shouldn’t even bother to field a candidate, so clear was Dubya’s lead just wouldn’t even Hear of an opinion that suggested theirs was premature at the time. Funny how things have changed, idnit?

What they do mean is that there is more grist for the mill for folks to discuss, more material on which to build a Bandwagon Effect, more reason for folks to give or withold money, more motivation for folks to volunteer some Actual Useful Political Work in seeking Votes. Each of those things has Real Meaning, and the polls do influence them.

Interesting how each side, when either down or moving downward in the polls, will Spin things so that the polls have no meaning. Contrariwise, if they are Up or moving up, the Spin will claim that they do.

Everybody spins; everybody wins.

Doesn’t matter which way the polls go.

But to say they are entirely without any meaning, merit or usefulness is to overlook the ways in which they are meaningful, have merit and are useful.

Campaign Professionals know that. The amateurs ranting away Out There don’t.

Posted by: Don at October 4, 2004 03:47 PM