2004 US Presidential Election
October 02, 2004
Kerry | Newsweek Poll: Kerry Leads
MSNBC reports that in the first national telephone poll using a fresh sample, Newsweek found the presidential race statistically tied among all registered voters, in a three-way race.
The poll was conducted among registered voters between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
From California Yankee.
Posted by Dan Spencer at October 2, 2004 07:52 PM | TrackBack
People should remember there will be a huge number of dispositive events between now and election day, the outcome of which should prove favorable to Bush-Cheney.
Posted by: DCanalyst at October 2, 2004 09:57 PM
To say that we will have pacified Fallujah and Ramadi is very optomistic on two counts.
First, the terrorist are bullies; they strut their stuff, beating on smaller people until someone their own size comes along; then they run and hide in the shadows, just waiting for the big guy to turn his back. I don’t think it will be any easier to get terrorists out of the Sunni Triangle than it is to get Cryps out of L.A. or the mafia out of N.Y.C.
Second, the press does not report good news. Even if we do pacify Iraq, it may not permeate U.S. public opinion in time to effect the elections.
I do agree, though, the election is not over. I also look forward to the V.P. debate.
Posted by: Tomorrowist at October 2, 2004 10:50 PM
I’m impressed… good forward looking view of key events. I’ve been seeing an increase in message traffic from friend, cohorts and former service members who say they are seeing an increase in offensive ops activity in Iraq to finally reduce the insurgency and stablize the Sunni Triangle as well.
As for how difficult it might be, this time it looks like limits caused by concern for collateral damage may not be a stringent. Unlike, say in LA or NYC, the military ops in the urban terrain that will and is apparently being used does not spare the use of overwhelming force to deal with these gangs of thugs and cut-throats.
Looking foward to the new employment numbers too. My understanding is that there will be a several hundred thousand increase in the 2003 numbers as well as part of the standard revision of previous year’s numbers. Shouldn’t this make the total jobs created in the past year about 2 million now if this happens?
I also anticipate that Cheny will use the VP debate to settle the score from the first debate, especially the “global test” statement. I also hope that Cheney will call into question several other mis-stated facts made by Kerry, too. Hopefully this will help to balance the apparent win on style over substance the media and others have made it out to be.
The Friday night poll by Rasmussen on the debate showed that despite the Kerry win on points, very few voters were swayed overall. Only 6% of the those polled were convinced to change their choice: 3% to Kerry, 2% to Bush and 1% to Nader. 53% of those polled who watched the debate say they expect Bush to win as compared to only 36% who expect a Kerry win.
Posted by: steve at October 2, 2004 11:08 PM
Steve — In addition to prospect of benchmark revisions that may well add to aggregate ‘03 new jobs, look back to beginning of ‘04, in Jan. and Feb., Establishment data had job gains well below what we had forecast — however, in March and April job gains surged above what we anticipated, to 300,000+ mark. It’s the same kind of thing now. In March and April, previously underreported job gains were recaptured. This could well happen in Sept. after similar underreporting of job gains in June-Aug. period. I’m certain that the economy grew at a surprising 4.5%+ pace in July and August. It’s only a matter of how much the hurricanes impacted Sept. that will determine the final 3-qtr GDP growth number to be reported at end October. Greatly heartened by the auto sales reported yesterday. That data really makes it clear that economy in 3-qtr at minimum advanced in low 4% range (perhaps up to 5%).
Posted by: DCanalyst at October 2, 2004 11:36 PM
..please give me a break,newsweek is like …
Posted by: Rob_NC at October 3, 2004 12:10 AM
In reality John Kerry may have had the lead in style but not in substance.
Posted by: augurwell at October 3, 2004 07:50 AM
Thanks again, DC Analyst. I’m sure both campaigns are sensing/seeing the same thing in the numbers and should be interesting how this plays on Friday. I wonder if this is why the second debate was moved to day these numbers come out?
Posted by: steve at October 3, 2004 08:21 AM
How much primping do you think kerry did for the first debate i heard that he got his nails done
Does Kerry want to be president or homecoming queen?
Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 3, 2004 09:49 AM
The outcome of the Debate proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that John Forbes Kerry will crown his acheivements on November 2, 2004, by delivering the most elequent concession speech in the history of American Presidential Politics.
Posted by: ET at October 3, 2004 11:00 AM
IMO, and in light of Eleanor Clift’s whine that “conservatives” are “intimidating” the Old Media (and Brokaw & Jennings are playing the same game in support of Rather by laying the blame on the pajama set’s “jihad” against the noble Old Media) and that Newsweek undersampled Republicans this go around..
Classic push-poll. LATimes was doing this during the Davis/Schwarzenegger vote.
Blatant partisanship from an Old Media source.
Posted by: Darleen at October 3, 2004 12:48 PM
It appears that the favorite MSM news source around TCP is Faux. Apparently you are not paying enough attention. You missed their retraction of the anti-gay slander on Kerry
In the case of Rather,
Also interesting that Lyin Crook Cheney is predicted to settle the score with Edwards. I’m certain that Poor Defenseless Schoolboy Johnnie will simply stand there with the now-familiar Bush look and take the whooping. Thinking “Roll my eyes” or “This is hard work.”
It might be instructive for the “global test”/anti-blue helmet crowd to notice:
DCanalyst dream on. Unfortunately recent events do not support your never-never land assessment. The most credible forecast—Brownian—will tell you that it’s likely to stay pretty much the same. This report from Happy Ranch is a wish. Can’t help wondering what you analyze there in DC...maybe people’s overpayments on their water bills?
Posted by: dubyus at October 3, 2004 02:34 PM
Newsweek Poll: Kerry Leads
Sure, if you load the sample with democrats. TCP does it again. Why is this a headline? Check out Real Clear Politics for a summary of All the polls.
Posted by: Jim at October 3, 2004 08:55 PM
“Newsweek Poll: Kerry Leads
The poll was conducted among registered voters between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.”
Am I in the land of oz or what…….. Maybe someone ‘smarter’ then me can explain …. if the margin of error is plus or minus 4% it seems to me nobody leads… but then again I’m just a simple person that see’s what I read
Posted by: colddog at October 3, 2004 09:10 PM
Not only did Senator Windsock get a manicure, but he apparently cheated as well by bringing crib notes on stage with him.
What an a-hole.
Posted by: TL at October 3, 2004 09:24 PM
“anti-gay slander” ????
DUby, you really have some issues.
Posted by: Darleen at October 3, 2004 11:23 PM
it was a joke dubyus seek a doctor he might be able to help you with that stick stuck in your arse
Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 4, 2004 09:11 AM
As I recall, in an actual debate a team is scored according to factual presentation, public speaking ability, an assortment of technical things like appearance and poise, and the substance of the argument.
While this was not a true debate, if scored according to the categories above Kerry would win on public speaking ability, appearance and poise. Bush would win on factual presentation and the substance of the argument.
With the exception of his “Global Test” gaffe, I can’t recall one single thing that Kerry said in response to Bush that merited remembering. However, I do recall quite a number of “factual mistatements” by Kerry that either are due to his being uninformed or deliberatly deceptive with the hope that the public wouldn’t know the difference.
On the other hand, despite his herky-jerky performance Bush did provide a number of memorable lines. “That’s absurd” being my favorite, and “…you can’t insult international leaders and then say you will hold a summit to gain their support for the War on Terrorism.” When Bush was on the attack and not repeating himself endlessly, he was effective.
I don’t know who was counseling the President on his debate preparation, but he/she should be FIRED right along with the person who scheduled a trip to Florida on the same day of the debate. Bush was TIRED and appeared to have been prepared in a very narrow fashion with lots of lines repeated over and over. Kerry on the other hand, seemed rested and daunting - willing to say anything at all just to keep the cadence going.
Advice to the Pres.
Advice to Kerry: Go windsurfing.
Posted by: Jim at October 4, 2004 09:36 AM