People should remember there will be a huge number of dispositive events between now and election day, the outcome of which should prove favorable to Bush-Cheney.
WEEK 1 — 10/4-10 — (1) Cheney-Edwards debate. Expect focused effort by Cheney to slice-and-dice Kerry - draw attention to Senate record, cast him as an extreme but shifting/shifty liberal. Should rebalance the public and press’s scrutiny that was tilted in the first debate toward Bush by first the relentlessness of Kerry’s attacks, Lehrer’s questions, and Bush’s unwillingness to counterattack forcefully. (2) The pacification of Samarra. Prior to the next Bush-Kerry debate I expect the Iraqi gov’t and US Central Command to announce they are in full control. (3) The Friday employment report. Expect an upward surprise, in range of 200-300,000 jobs created in the Establishment series (and acknowledgement it would have been more in absence of hurricanes). (4) Next Bush-Kerry debate – President goes in (better prepared) with momentum renewed by above events.
WEEK 2 - 10/9-16 – (1) 2 crucial elections on 10/9 – Afghanistan and Australia. Credible Afghan elections (and Karzi win) boosts Bush-Cheney; so will likely reelection of Howard. (2) Final debate – Bush should have plenty of ammunition by then.
WEEK 3 – 17-23 – (1) Probable pacification of Sadr City and entrance of al-Sadr into electoral process (perhaps allied with another Shiite party) and the beginning of the end in Fallujah and Ramadi.
WEEK 4 – 24-30 – (1) Third Quarter GDP report – As an economist, while less certain about the employment report I am more certain on this report, looking for something in 4-5% range (would have been higher without the hurricanes). (2) Pacification of Fallujah and Ramadi complete.
WEEK 5 – Election day.

Posted by: DCanalyst at October 2, 2004 09:57 PM

To say that we will have pacified Fallujah and Ramadi is very optomistic on two counts.

First, the terrorist are bullies; they strut their stuff, beating on smaller people until someone their own size comes along; then they run and hide in the shadows, just waiting for the big guy to turn his back. I don’t think it will be any easier to get terrorists out of the Sunni Triangle than it is to get Cryps out of L.A. or the mafia out of N.Y.C.

Second, the press does not report good news. Even if we do pacify Iraq, it may not permeate U.S. public opinion in time to effect the elections.

I do agree, though, the election is not over. I also look forward to the V.P. debate.

Posted by: Tomorrowist at October 2, 2004 10:50 PM

DC Anylyst:

I’m impressed… good forward looking view of key events. I’ve been seeing an increase in message traffic from friend, cohorts and former service members who say they are seeing an increase in offensive ops activity in Iraq to finally reduce the insurgency and stablize the Sunni Triangle as well.
This will feature significant Iraqi military force and teamwork. US Special Ops snipers are being used in particular effectiness to keep the insurgents from moving freely while the door-to-door sweeps are being made by Iraqi forces. From the early reports already, I do not know how the media can overlook this assault in Samarra and the upcoming push into Fallujha and Sadr City. This time I get the impression that the gloves have come off and there will not be any “time out” to let the insergents and terriorist regroup. Might be time for Fox to send Ollie North and some other qualified combat correspondents back into the fray to help get the news out one way or the other.

As for how difficult it might be, this time it looks like limits caused by concern for collateral damage may not be a stringent. Unlike, say in LA or NYC, the military ops in the urban terrain that will and is apparently being used does not spare the use of overwhelming force to deal with these gangs of thugs and cut-throats.

Looking foward to the new employment numbers too. My understanding is that there will be a several hundred thousand increase in the 2003 numbers as well as part of the standard revision of previous year’s numbers. Shouldn’t this make the total jobs created in the past year about 2 million now if this happens?

I also anticipate that Cheny will use the VP debate to settle the score from the first debate, especially the “global test” statement. I also hope that Cheney will call into question several other mis-stated facts made by Kerry, too. Hopefully this will help to balance the apparent win on style over substance the media and others have made it out to be.

The Friday night poll by Rasmussen on the debate showed that despite the Kerry win on points, very few voters were swayed overall. Only 6% of the those polled were convinced to change their choice: 3% to Kerry, 2% to Bush and 1% to Nader. 53% of those polled who watched the debate say they expect Bush to win as compared to only 36% who expect a Kerry win.

Posted by: steve at October 2, 2004 11:08 PM

Steve — In addition to prospect of benchmark revisions that may well add to aggregate ‘03 new jobs, look back to beginning of ‘04, in Jan. and Feb., Establishment data had job gains well below what we had forecast — however, in March and April job gains surged above what we anticipated, to 300,000+ mark. It’s the same kind of thing now. In March and April, previously underreported job gains were recaptured. This could well happen in Sept. after similar underreporting of job gains in June-Aug. period. I’m certain that the economy grew at a surprising 4.5%+ pace in July and August. It’s only a matter of how much the hurricanes impacted Sept. that will determine the final 3-qtr GDP growth number to be reported at end October. Greatly heartened by the auto sales reported yesterday. That data really makes it clear that economy in 3-qtr at minimum advanced in low 4% range (perhaps up to 5%).

Posted by: DCanalyst at October 2, 2004 11:36 PM

..please give me a break,newsweek is like …
C-cant
B-believe
S-you tell me…
…anything we say..
ok, I admit the o~nag lives to fight another day..
..he is still lame..out of touch..and just plain boring..but
he`s got nice hair and nails..just what a nation a war needs…:-((((

Posted by: Rob_NC at October 3, 2004 12:10 AM

In reality John Kerry may have had the lead in style but not in substance.

Posted by: augurwell at October 3, 2004 07:50 AM

Thanks again, DC Analyst. I’m sure both campaigns are sensing/seeing the same thing in the numbers and should be interesting how this plays on Friday. I wonder if this is why the second debate was moved to day these numbers come out?
Some of the other data points point to a robust economy, too… such as the housing and construction posts as well as the uptick in the market even with high fuel costs.

Posted by: steve at October 3, 2004 08:21 AM

How much primping do you think kerry did for the first debate i heard that he got his nails done

Does Kerry want to be president or homecoming queen?

Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 3, 2004 09:49 AM

The outcome of the Debate proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that John Forbes Kerry will crown his acheivements on November 2, 2004, by delivering the most elequent concession speech in the history of American Presidential Politics.

Posted by: ET at October 3, 2004 11:00 AM

IMO, and in light of Eleanor Clift’s whine that “conservatives” are “intimidating” the Old Media (and Brokaw & Jennings are playing the same game in support of Rather by laying the blame on the pajama set’s “jihad” against the noble Old Media) and that Newsweek undersampled Republicans this go around..

Classic push-poll. LATimes was doing this during the Davis/Schwarzenegger vote.

Blatant partisanship from an Old Media source.

How quaint.

Posted by: Darleen at October 3, 2004 12:48 PM

NavyVetAgainstTheNextPrez…

It appears that the favorite MSM news source around TCP is Faux. Apparently you are not paying enough attention. You missed their retraction of the anti-gay slander on Kerry

In the case of Rather,
There was quite a right wing lather
With Cameron—who just makes up shit—
It’s a perfect fit
For the W-used-underwear brigade, the tough guys and their Kook-Aid.

Also interesting that Lyin Crook Cheney is predicted to settle the score with Edwards. I’m certain that Poor Defenseless Schoolboy Johnnie will simply stand there with the now-familiar Bush look and take the whooping. Thinking “Roll my eyes” or “This is hard work.”

It might be instructive for the “global test”/anti-blue helmet crowd to notice:
1. Powell’s (remember him, the only-respected-member-of-the-current-administration SecyState?) position which is similar to Kerry’s. That is Kerry’s position, not Karl’s lies about Kerry’s position.
2. What civilian head of government is directing US troops in Iraq. Of course, it could be said that Allawi is actually a US agent/puppet. So presumably that would be okay.

DCanalyst dream on. Unfortunately recent events do not support your never-never land assessment. The most credible forecast—Brownian—will tell you that it’s likely to stay pretty much the same. This report from Happy Ranch is a wish. Can’t help wondering what you analyze there in DC...maybe people’s overpayments on their water bills?

Posted by: dubyus at October 3, 2004 02:34 PM

Newsweek Poll: Kerry Leads

Sure, if you load the sample with democrats. TCP does it again. Why is this a headline? Check out Real Clear Politics for a summary of All the polls.

Posted by: Jim at October 3, 2004 08:55 PM

“Newsweek Poll: Kerry Leads

The poll was conducted among registered voters between September 30 and October 2 and has a margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.”

Am I in the land of oz or what…….. Maybe someone ‘smarter’ then me can explain …. if the margin of error is plus or minus 4% it seems to me nobody leads… but then again I’m just a simple person that see’s what I read

Posted by: colddog at October 3, 2004 09:10 PM

Not only did Senator Windsock get a manicure, but he apparently cheated as well by bringing crib notes on stage with him.

What an a-hole.

http://www.dailyrecycler.com/blog/2004/10/winners-never-cheat.html

Posted by: TL at October 3, 2004 09:24 PM

“anti-gay slander” ????

DUby, you really have some issues.

Seek help.

Posted by: Darleen at October 3, 2004 11:23 PM

it was a joke dubyus seek a doctor he might be able to help you with that stick stuck in your arse

Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 4, 2004 09:11 AM

As I recall, in an actual debate a team is scored according to factual presentation, public speaking ability, an assortment of technical things like appearance and poise, and the substance of the argument.

While this was not a true debate, if scored according to the categories above Kerry would win on public speaking ability, appearance and poise. Bush would win on factual presentation and the substance of the argument.

With the exception of his “Global Test” gaffe, I can’t recall one single thing that Kerry said in response to Bush that merited remembering. However, I do recall quite a number of “factual mistatements” by Kerry that either are due to his being uninformed or deliberatly deceptive with the hope that the public wouldn’t know the difference.

On the other hand, despite his herky-jerky performance Bush did provide a number of memorable lines. “That’s absurd” being my favorite, and “…you can’t insult international leaders and then say you will hold a summit to gain their support for the War on Terrorism.” When Bush was on the attack and not repeating himself endlessly, he was effective.

I don’t know who was counseling the President on his debate preparation, but he/she should be FIRED right along with the person who scheduled a trip to Florida on the same day of the debate. Bush was TIRED and appeared to have been prepared in a very narrow fashion with lots of lines repeated over and over. Kerry on the other hand, seemed rested and daunting - willing to say anything at all just to keep the cadence going.

Advice to the Pres.
Drop the whiny tone. We know Kerry is a jerk.
Don’t keep repeating stock phrases - we got it the first time and for sure by the second time.
You have the argument on your side, so state it.
PREPARE.
REST.
Stand up straight! Don’t slouch or lean into the podium.
Don’t get bogged down in all that touchy feely stuff.
Quit being so nice to Kerry. Polite will do. Remember, he betrayed his fellow servicemen and women as well as those of us here at home; he doesn’t deserve our praise or yours!
Don’t pay any attention to that made-up, manicured man who looks like Lurch standing at the other podium on the stage. As a pilot you should know, “Fly your own airplane.”
Talk to the people —- You did this well in the first debate.
Get it done!

Advice to Kerry: Go windsurfing.

Posted by: Jim at October 4, 2004 09:36 AM