Libs are spreading the word that Kerry won big..and they get slapped back by this. GREAT!!
Here in Wisconsin, I figure it will tighten up. Instead of Bush ahead by 14 points it will likely bleed down to say…oh….12 points!! ha ha ha

Give it some time, and Kerry’s mistakes will become very apparent. All the way from bi-lateral talks with Korea, to his STOOPID reference to going into a Nazi Prison rather than a Russian location. Kerry was forceful and presidential, but analysis of his words is BIZARRO! He has a tendency to have grand lies…not a good character trait.

Posted by: dickmr at October 1, 2004 09:58 AM

Is there a poll that ask the question “do you believe John Kerrys current postition on Iraq is the same one that he has had since 1995”?

Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 1, 2004 10:45 AM

I want to answer the poll question “Do you think that nuclear weapons should be an option in the U.S. arsenal, except for the ones that take out hardened positions?”

Posted by: waffletromper at October 1, 2004 10:59 AM

John Kerry was obviously upset that 90% of the coalition deaths were American. Here’s to non-U.S. coalition fatalities to get that percentage down more to Kerry’s liking.

Posted by: waffletromper at October 1, 2004 11:02 AM

I do like kerry’s position that signing the Kyoto Global Warming Treaty gives legitamacy to a n. korean invasion. Talk about an E-ticket.

Posted by: waffletromper at October 1, 2004 11:15 AM

I saw a poll that made me really laugh almost 9 out of ten french prefer kerry over bush

“I would rather have a German Division in front of me than a French one behind me”… General George S. Patton

“We can either stand here like the French or we can do something about it” … Marge Simpson

new campaign slogan
George Bush
He must be doing something right if he pisses off the French so much

Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 1, 2004 11:17 AM

kerry on Iran:

I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel, test them, see whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes.

considering how we got screwed by the norks, i think Kerry’s first job in office will be to turn the red light on.

Posted by: waffletromper at October 1, 2004 11:28 AM

And let us not forget that it was the clinton admin that helped north korea in the first place with the 2 light water reactors hoping that peace through appeasment would solve the problem

Posted by: navyvetagainstkerry at October 1, 2004 11:56 AM

Gee two folk that can not convice voters that don’t agree with them to change their minds ‘debating’ one another. I’m am surprised beyond my poor old mind of the great ‘change’ in the polling numbers……..

Posted by: colddog at October 1, 2004 07:02 PM

I had three big complaints with the positions Kerry took in the debate that I haven’t seen mentioned by others.

1) He’s running for President of America, not of Russia. Yet he talks about how he’s going to secure Russia’s nuclear material in an incredibly arrogant way. He’s not going to help them do it, or provide assistance or support. He’s just going to do it. What if they don’t want his help? Is he going to invade?

2) He practically said he’s going to invade Sudan too. He’ll provide “logistical support” and if that isn’t enought he’s not opposed to sending troops. But Iraq was a mistake.

3) His incredibly arrogant attitude that he’ll fix the situation in Iraq. His speech on the subject would have sounded more appropriate if he was wearing a blue spandex suit with a red cape… I kept wanting Bush to say: “that’s a good plan on paper, John. But there’s an old military saying that no plan survives first contact with the enemy.”

It would be cool to see someone paste his head on a cartoon image of a superhero with that speech… :)

Posted by: Jeff at October 1, 2004 07:21 PM

Waffletromper-

I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel, test them, see whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes.

The next line was even better!

(paraphrased)And if it doesn’t work out, we’ll have the UN impose sanctions…

Posted by: Scott at October 2, 2004 09:11 AM

The snapshot Meeja Polls are not the Tracking and Trending Polls. It is the latter that are really important.

Posted by: Don at October 2, 2004 01:53 PM

Fair enough Don. So here’s some tracking poll data that says the same thing. Here’s an analysis of Rasmussen numbers this morning:

I’ll start with the good news for Kerry. There was a somewhat significant bump (0.6%) of certain voters for Kerry to his historic high of 40%. (Bush is at 44%) The Democrats cut the “interest” gap in half. Long story short, Kerry shored up his base with one month left when he should have done it at the DNC. It does mean, however, that we should not depend on a demoralized opponent. GOTV! GOTV! GOTV!

Now for the bad news for Kerry:

The three day rolling average (one post debate) was still stuck at 49-46. This confirms the snap polls taken elsewhere.

6% changed their minds because of the debate. 3% went to Kerry, 2% to Bush. Net pick up of 1% for Kerry. Note that 17% thought they could change their minds going in.

Those who changed their minds:

7% men
4% women

4% Republican
8% Democrat
5% Other

5% Conservative
6% Moderate
7% Liberal

4% Bush Supporter
7% Kerry Supporter

So, if there was net pick up of one, all Kerry did was regained his own voters and was not really picking up true undecideds. Looking at men versus women is interesting because men conclude Kerry wins the debate by only a 48-43 while women scored it 55-37 for Kerry. Kerry is in BIG trouble. That’s because the women believed that Kerry was a very good salesman but they still ain’t buying.

Bottom Line: Kerry had the best night of his life, Bush was off his game and Kerry got nothing except for a minor energizing of his base. That newfound enthusiasm may quickly fade, however, once the donks realize Kerry still has a big L on his orange forehead. That may come sooner rather than later because 32% now believe that Kerry will win compared with 38% following the RNC.

Posted by: Rich Blinne at October 2, 2004 03:40 PM

Don’t be too sure about how things are landing out there.

From USAF Lt. Col. in Military Week…
They ain’t leaders! Except for Colon Bowel, who used to be…and he sold out by lying and misleading. That pimp had strong information that the aluminium tubes were not for nuclear use. Shame, shame! Gang of liars and thieves. Their supporters have been notified.

Posted by: dubyus at October 2, 2004 04:26 PM

RB: Oh do pay attention.

A 3-day rolling average tracks things that happened Before the debate. We are only just now coming to where one would track the effect of the event.

The bit you leave out is the trending on the 1-5 scale, used to ID voters. Those numbers, largely thus far proprietary, demonstrate a significant softening in Dubya’s support levels.

One debate does not a campaign make. It’s the aggregated total of all of them, plus other events, that really matters.

I’ll stand on what I said earlier. The T&T numbers don’t jibe with the snapshot polling data.

Posted by: Don at October 2, 2004 05:50 PM

Within Rasmussen the best way to determine core support is the “certain” voter category. Even including data after the debate Bush has a 4 point spread over Kerry. 44-40 percent. Gallup has the best likely voter model, so I am waiting for them. Likely voter models are an art but they are certainly better than the registered voter model. Any such polls should be instantly thrown into the trash heap. Examples of this are the LA Times oversampling Democrats after the DNC, Time oversampling Republicans after the RNC, and Newsweek havning just oversampled Democrats after the debate. At a minimum all polls should release both registered and likely voter numbers along with party affiliation demographics.

Posted by: Rich Blinne at October 2, 2004 08:53 PM

..hyper-ventilating are we..chill folks..breath deeply and relax..

Posted by: Rob_NC at October 3, 2004 12:23 AM

Rasmussen still holding at 49-45 on Sunday. Post-debate interviews show 49-46 for both days. JA still 53%. There was an increase of support for staying the course in Iraq versus getting out (57% up from 52%). 71% believe that this is Bush’s top priority (up from 66%) while 25% believe that it is Kerry’s top priority (up from 17%).

Posted by: Rich Blinne at October 3, 2004 03:04 PM