The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
September 24, 2004
Polls | American Research Group Poll: Bush Leads Pop. Vote; Kerry Leads in E. College

ARG has released their new poll, which is notable for the size of its sample: 600 interviews with likely voters in each state and DC. This is an enormous overall sample, and a very large sample within each state as well.

The results:

  • George W. Bush is at 47% and John Kerry is at 46% in the weighted national popular vote.
  • Bush leads outside the margin of error in 17 states with 133 electoral votes.
  • Kerry leads outside the margin of error in 10 states with 132 electoral votes.
  • Bush has any lead in 29 states with 253 electoral votes.
  • Kerry has any lead in 20 states with 270 electoral votes.
  • Bush and Kerry are tied in Wisconsin and West Virginia.


Posted by Alan at September 24, 2004 08:08 AM | TrackBack
Comments

hmmm. If Bush wins the popular vote and loses the electoral vote, will Gore insist that GWB should be pres?

Posted by: billhedrick [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:18 PM

The National Intelligence Estimate - best information from US intelligence, according to Weakling…”they were just guessing.”

And their guesses were, according to Wimp, ” life could be lousy, life could be OK, life could be better”. When in fact, the NIE said something more like:

The acute difficulties in Iraq are highlighted in the National Intelligence Estimate, drawn up in July and representing the distilled wisdom of the entire US intelligence community.

It sketches out three scenarios for Iraq. The grimmest is a descent into civil war; the second is understood to be a continuation of the current disorder. Even the most favourable of the three holds out no better prospect than a precarious stability, under constant threat.

He and his mindless sheep followers live in some god-forsaken alternate universe. Most likely in coWard’s case, a world of a cocaine addict and alcoholic in denial.

Posted by: dubyus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:29 PM

hmmm dubyus, do you happen to read what the post you are commenting on is about?

Posted by: billhedrick [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:36 PM

billhedrick
You seem to have forgotten that Gore accepted the ruling of the Supreme Court, graciously. This comment only makes sense if anyone had ever insisted that ChickhaWk relinquish the WH to Gore.

This is a rectomyopic view.

There are people who aren’t happy with the bloodless coup d’etat that Whore, his little brother, Jim Taker and HairAss pulled in FL. Please post links to any reliable information to the contrary.

It appears that this gem has been pulled out of someone’s butt. Or perhaps this is the latest Rush entertainment. Doubtful that Gore would say anything. However, it would not be a bit surprising to have a ReThug über-patriot start screeching about it.

Posted by: dubyus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:40 PM

billhedrick
Yeah, I do…I also don’t follow the rules or conventions. If that’s a problem for you, maybe you could try not to think about it.

Posted by: dubyus [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:45 PM

If I recall, Gore went kicking and screaming to the Supreme Court, and had to quit afterwards because there was no where else he could appeal too. He has not accepted the Courts decision graciously, as his rhetoric in the past years can attest to.

You really should lay off the “sheep” comments too. It makes it way to easy..

Posted by: Brian [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 12:48 PM

Well, Gore did complain about the result in his lawsuit, but I don’t think he ever complained about the concept that if he lost Florida, he lost the presidency, even though he had a plurality of the popular vote.

On the other hand, some Democrats (including Gore I think) contended that Bush should have involved Democrats in the cabinet and so forth, and generally consulted the other side more on decisions, due to the lack of a plurality of the vote.

Posted by: samuelv [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 01:16 PM


If I recall, Gore went kicking and screaming to the Supreme Court, and had to quit afterwards because there was no where else he could appeal too.

No, I don’t think that’s how it went down.

Not to dredge up these painful memories again, but…
Florida’s S.C. ruled in favor of re-counting (in favor of Gore).
So Bush & co. went to the U.S.S.C. which voted to halt counting (in favor of Bush).

linkage

ok, ep

Posted by: elvispresley2k [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 01:55 PM

dubyus, hard to not think about it when we’re talking about cooking chicken and you start railing against dove hunting. If you don’t want to talk about the stuff michelle, alan, et al, why not get your own blog? Since you don’t follow rules or conventions, can I come and defecate on your living room floor?

Posted by: billhedrick [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 02:21 PM

I have an artiucle up on Polipundit, which may help explain the way these polls work, including the misleading ARG poll.

http://polipundit.com/index.php?p=4176

Posted by: DJDrummond [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 03:16 PM

i like the old carl better

Posted by: waffletromper [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 04:07 PM

Ohhhhh, I get it now… dubyus, when he is not curling his toes over the PortSide rail, is followin’ the sheep around in Wyoming. Do you enjoy watching them sheep get dipped there, dubyus?

Just curious.

Posted by: Cap'n DOC [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 04:58 PM

it was the ‘alternate universe’ comment. he has always sounded like kerry. now he’s just petty about it.

Posted by: waffletromper [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 06:12 PM

dubyus —

I generally avoid feeding trolls, but I have to say that your beavis and butthead cutesy, vulgar wordplay is about as annoying as any I see on adult blog comment boards.

Are you as big a prick in person as you are on the internet or do you just save it up and vomit it all at once? Just asking.

Posted by: ter0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 06:20 PM

Don’t be hard on the old boy, he’s losing….its tough.

By the way, the President is way up here in Wisconsin, and is NOT tied with Kerry. One liberal poll had Bush up by 14 even, but the consensus is around 8-10%. If ARG found the race to be even, they must have made 75% of their calls to the inner city of Milwaukee, or to the government troughers in Madison. The Pres was here today drawing big crowds and seems to be stirring people to get off their butts to vote….unemployment is low is our state, and has rapid 60,000 new manufacturing jobs returned….so people now know to laugh when Kerry and Edwards come here to make their doom and gloom comments.

Posted by: dickmr [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 24, 2004 10:44 PM

May I please remind everyone:

we welcome all perspectives, but require that comments be both civil and respectful. We also ask that you avoid the extensive use of profanity, racist terms (neither of which we consider civil or respectful), and other boorish language.

We don’t require that comments be on-topic, rational, coherent or sane.

dubyus: your first post was a par excellence example of boorish language, that deliberately provoked an uncivil and disrespectful response (by people who should know better.. hint hint).
Cool it please, or it will be cooled for you.

Posted by: aebrain [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 25, 2004 12:55 AM

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