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2004 US Presidential Election
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September 09, 2004
Bush | President Bush Gains in Ohio And Missouri

USA Today reports that President Bush now holds a clear lead over Kerry in the critical battlegrounds states of Missouri and Ohio.

Bush’s margins in Missouri and Ohio are the first statistically significant leads that either candidate has held in a dozen surveys USA TODAY has taken in battleground states during this election.

His 14-point edge in Missouri raises questions about whether the traditional bellwether is still competitive. The Kerry campaign hasn’t purchased air time for TV ads in the state this month.

“What’s happening is more and more states that are Bush states (from 2000) are getting taken off the table,” says Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for the Bush campaign. “Now the battleground states are In becoming much more predominantly Gore states, which is good news for us,” he said.

From California Yankee.



Posted by Dan Spencer at September 9, 2004 08:13 AM | TrackBack
Comments

One of the things I find remarkable is this AOL straw poll of users…

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

I know it’s not scientific and does not have the “controls” of a professional poll, but historically AOL users have a bias to the liberal. However, this straw poll, reset on Sept 1, and thus granted it has the greatest effect by the Repub Convention, has 1/3rd of a MILLION “votes” and shows Bush SWEEPING nearly EVERY electoral vote.

While undoubtedly wrong, I think it gives an indication of a Bush leaning even in a more liberal sample.

Posted by: Max Darkside [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2004 11:23 AM

I agree with all that MaxD. And another point to be made is not only does it reset each month, but aol users can only vote once per month per screen name. Before the Rep. Conv. it was a pretty balanced red-blue map. If my memory is correct, on Friday after Bush’s speech there were only 3 blue states. On Saturday there were 2 on Monday there was 1 and it’s remained that way. And another thing I have no doubt that all those Kerry supporters on aol have been doing their best to move those reds to blue ..:-)

Still it’s a very interesting perspective of a very large sample.

Posted by: TexasGal [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 9, 2004 01:19 PM

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