The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
September 05, 2004
Bush | Campaign Finance Reform: 60-day window is here

In case y’all hadn’t noticed, we’re now within 60 days of the election, which means that in theory, 527 groups are now prohibited from running television and radio ads:

Restrictions on “Phony Issue Ads” Run by Corporations and Unions (The Snowe-Jeffords Amendment). First adopted as part of McCain-Feingold during the Senate’s February 1998 campaign finance debate, the Snowe-Jeffords amendment addresses the explosion of thinly-veiled campaign advertising funded by corporate and union treasuries. These ads skirt federal election law by avoiding the use of direct entreaties to “vote for” or “vote against” a particular candidate. Under the bill, labor unions and corporations would be prohibited from spending their treasury funds on “electioneering communications.” “Electioneering communications” are defined as radio or TV ads that refer to a clearly identified candidate or candidates and appear within 30 days of a primary or 60 days of a general election. This definition does not include any printed communication, direct mail, voter guides, or the Internet. It would also not cover issue advertising that does not identify a specific candidate or appears outside of the 30/60 day pre-election window.

The Snowe-Jeffords amendment applies to 501©(4) non-profit corporations and incorporated 527 organizations…

Update 9/6: Note that this restriction doesn’t apply to all 527’s, only those that are incorporated or take corporate/union money. If anyone knows a definitive source to identify which 527’s fall into this category and which don’t, please chime in.

So the question becomes: what the hell are the 527’s going to do with any money that they’ve amassed but haven’t spent yet?

One interesting theory is that 527’s may channel advertising dollars online. And hey, I’m all for that. Bring that dirty, filthy campaign lucre right on!

But does anybody have any money left anyway? Easy enough to check, thanks to the invaluable OpenSecrets.org. I pulled down the expenditures and receipts for the top 50 527’s, added columns to show the percentage of their funds that has been spent and their funds remaining, and put it back in a chart again:

CommitteeReceiptsExpenditures% SpentRemaining
Service Employees International Union $16,652,296 $8,808,017 52.9%$7,844,279
Joint Victory Campaign 2004 *$41,685,706 $35,780,404 85.8%$5,905,302
America Coming Together$26,905,450 $24,196,532 89.9%$2,708,918
Sierra Club$3,440,782 $830,871 24.1%$2,609,911
League of Conservation Voters$2,804,000 $541,882 19.3%$2,262,118
Progress for America$2,266,810 $689,560 30.4%$1,577,250
Coalition to Defend the American Dream$1,425,381 $101,507 7.1%$1,323,874
Democratic Victory 2004$1,302,600 $0 0.0%$1,302,600
Voices For Working Families$3,668,280 $2,396,272 65.3%$1,272,008
Media Fund$28,127,488 $27,208,905 96.7%$918,583
America Votes$1,937,036 $1,176,590 60.7%$760,446
Democrats 2000$705,145 $56,342 8.0%$648,803
Floridians Uniting for a Stronger Tmrw$606,049 $28,683 4.7%$577,366
United Auto Workers $1,050,469 $542,182 51.6%$508,287
Natural Resources Defense Council$782,500 $277,897 35.5%$504,603
Democratic Attorneys General Assn$1,000,009 $527,827 52.8%$472,182
Music for America$1,550,200 $1,096,671 70.7%$453,529
United Food & Commercial Workers Union $780,518 $370,306 47.4%$410,212
American Dental Assn $730,499 $335,732 46.0%$394,767
American Fedn of St/Cnty/Munic Employees $13,658,207 $13,274,331 97.2%$383,876
Democratic Legislative Campaign Cmte$3,544,667 $3,205,115 90.4%$339,552
Communications Workers of America $2,263,913 $1,926,066 85.1%$337,847
Grassroots Democrats$1,445,528 $1,137,544 78.7%$307,984
American Federation of Teachers $606,299 $322,945 53.3%$283,354
Partnership for America’s Families$3,071,211 $2,855,110 93.0%$216,101
New Democrat Network$7,172,693 $6,970,070 97.2%$202,623
Ironworkers Union $695,742 $511,631 73.5%$184,111
National Assn of Realtors$1,450,000 $1,306,711 90.1%$143,289
AFL-CIO $4,109,799 $4,002,600 97.4%$107,199
EMILY’s List$4,162,226 $4,070,369 97.8%$91,857
Florida House Victory$666,550 $585,434 87.8%$81,116
Environment 2004$645,921 $629,190 97.4%$16,731
Americans for Jobs, Healthcare & Values$1,000,000 $994,137 99.4%$5,863
Americans for Progress & Opportunity$1,306,092 $1,305,667 100.0%$425
Arkansans for the 21st Century$1,023,949 $1,024,812 100.1%($863)
Alliance for Florida’s Future$647,443 $648,493 100.2%($1,050)
Conservation Strategies$500,010 $513,096 102.6%($13,086)
Republican Leadership Council$743,303 $765,596 103.0%($22,293)
Hotel/Restaurant Employees Intl Union$1,403,387 $1,493,772 106.4%($90,385)
Sheet Metal Workers Union $995,305 $1,288,677 129.5%($293,372)
Laborers Union $2,163,448 $2,459,716 113.7%($296,268)
GOPAC$841,849 $1,243,622 147.7%($401,773)
College Republican National Cmte$3,647,093 $4,789,820 131.3%($1,142,727)
Carpenters & Joiners Union $738,718 $1,917,054 259.5%($1,178,336)
Club for Growth$5,538,847 $6,755,054 122.0%($1,216,207)
National Federation of Republican Women$558,019 $1,848,856 331.3%($1,290,837)
National Education Assn $821,831 $3,505,627 426.6%($2,683,796)
Intl Brotherhood of Electrical Workers $723,121 $3,613,709 499.7%($2,890,588)
MoveOn.org$9,086,102 $17,435,782 191.9%($8,349,680)
* Joint Victory Campaign 2004 is a joint fund-raising committee run by America Coming Together and the Media Fund. Money raised by JVC is divided between these two beneficiaries. Combining receipts for these three groups would result in double-counting.

So there’s a few interesting observations to be had from this data. First, it’s clear that —- assuming the reporting data is up-to-date —- there’s still decent piles of cash lying in the coffers of some of the major 527’s, including the Democrats’ mega-fund, the Joint Victory Fund, as well as others.

But then there’s the bottom end of the table, which is somewhat odd. Many 527’s have actually spent more than they are reporting as receipts. I would think that there are two explanations for this: first, that the group is in fact spending ahead of donations on credit or debt, or second, that the reporting is simply behind on receipts while it is up-to-date on spending. This makes a certain kind of sense; I presume it is a much less burdensome process to list expenditures than it is to report on all the tiny donations received.

But some of the numbers are wildly out of wack, including those for everyone’s favorite, MoveOn.org. They’ve spent $17M with receipts of only $9M, apparently —- a gap of $8 million. Now that is some fairly shoddy reporting, if you ask me.

But back to the funds that are left. At his current rates, $4,000 will get you an add that runs from here until Election Day over at Instapundit —- and you can even get the top slot for a mere $6,000. Glenn’s current traffic suggests that it’s a safe bet that he’ll get around 10 million visits between now and election day, so his rates are a bargain if there ever was one.

Further down the traffic, over at TTLB, you can run an ad until the end of the campaign for $70. Yes, $70. I mean, that’s less than the price of a power lunch. And while I can’t guarantee Glenn’s mega-visitage, my own traffic hasn’t been too shabby lately (especially in Great Britain, though they don’t vote, I’m told). And somewhere inbetween, here at The Command Post, you can run an add site-wide until Election Day for $300. Cheap, cheap, cheap!

Other blogs are priced similarly, generally with a pretty direct relation between traffic and cost. So it sure seems logical to expect that there might be a flood of political dollars headed our way sometime soon. So to use language that I know both Republicans and Democrats now understand:

Bring. It. On!

PS: Bonus 60-day tidbit: Another odd part of campaign finance regulations is that, believe it or not, Senators are prohibited from updating their own websites within 60 days of an election. Here’s the relevant rule:

During the 60 day period immediately preceding the date of any primary or general election (whether regular, special, or runoff) for any national, state, or local office in which the Senator is a candidate, no Member may place, update or transmit information using a Senate Internet Server (“FTP Server, Gopher, and World Wide Web), unless the candidacy of the Senator in such election is uncontested. Exceptions to this moratorium include the following: posting of press releases, posting of official statements of the member appearing in the Congressional Record, and technical corrections to the website.

Kind of odd, really, but if you can post press releases, I can’t see how it is very much of a restriction.

Originally posted at The Truth Laid Bear



Posted by N.Z. Bear at September 5, 2004 12:47 PM | TrackBack
Comments

That ban on issue ads does not apply to unincorporated groups, as far as I know. I don’t know if the Swifties or Moveon are incorporated or not, but the loophole for unincorporated groups has been well-known for some time.

Posted by: R C Dean [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 5, 2004 02:22 PM

nice post, N.Z., thanks.

Posted by: j [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 5, 2004 06:38 PM

Thanks for all the info. As someone who worked in local television for years, no political ads went on before the check arrived. Since political groups got special rates, the stations got paid upfront (all candidates, all issues - if you did it for one and didn’t for the other, you were in lots of trouble). I’m sure it was the same way for the 527’s - so they paid their TV bills on time.

Posted by: Mara [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 5, 2004 08:09 PM

I wonder if this is related to news form the Kerry camp that they will be responding strongly to the Swift Boat Vets now.

Seems to me that they waited until the Swifties couldn’t respond in ads.

Posted by: John Davies [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2004 12:32 PM

It would be nice to know what 527s should be quiet now and which ones could still talk.

Of course, I still think that this is all trampling on free speech.

Posted by: David R. Block [TypeKey Profile Page] at September 6, 2004 06:37 PM

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