The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
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August 27, 2004
| The Smart Money

From Iowa Electronic Markets :

The IEM 2004 US Presidential Winner Takes All Market is a real-money futures market where contract payoffs will be determined by the popular vote cast in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election. Please see the market prospectus for specific details of this market.

The market is open to all traders world-wide. Consult our on-line trader’s manual for additional information.

The Traders’ Manual, Prospectus and graph of daily prices are available online.

(Today’s Quote : Republicans 53c, Democrats 46c, but last week they were neck-and-neck at 48c each.)

“Those who gamble are either Fools or Knaves: Fools because they don’t know who’s going to win, or Knaves because they do.”



Posted by Alan Brain at August 27, 2004 03:10 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Hmm…

Of course with a race this close a lot of I don’t think we can really take lots and lots of meaning out of things like this, but it is interesting to see.

Like the bizarre statistic that I managed to catch while watching the NFL pre-season game between Kansas City and St. Louis this last Monday:

The state of Missouri has a history of voting for the winning president with one notable exception sometime mid century (I forget who). Missouri is currently polling slightly higher for Bush.

Of course they also made sure to mention that the state with the worst track record of voting for the winning contender is Mississippi… and they’re polling for Bush too.

Heh. So do the statistics cancel each other out?

Posted by: Lackey [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 27, 2004 07:46 AM

“The best way to make a small fortune in the futures market is to start with a large one.”

Wall Street adage

Posted by: Ian [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 27, 2004 01:14 PM

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