The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
« Another Democrat Backs Bush | Main | Bush Asks McCain to Help Block 527s »
August 25, 2004
Bush | Bush Overtakes Kerry in Latest L.A. Times Poll

The Los Angeles Times reports that its latest poll has found President Bush leading Kerry for the first time this year. The result 49 to 46 among registered voters is within the poll’s margin of error.

According to the Times:

With independent voters splitting evenly in the survey between the two men, one key to Bush’s tentative new advantage was his greater success at consolidating his base. While just 3 percent of voters who called themselves Republicans said they would vote for Kerry, Bush drew 15 percent of all Democrats, and 20 percent of Democrats who consider themselves moderate or conservative, the poll found.

From California Yankee.



Posted by Dan Spencer at August 25, 2004 11:32 PM | TrackBack
Comments

The Times Poll, supervised by polling director Susan Pinkus, interviewed 1,597 adults, including 1,352 registered voters nationwide, from Saturday through Tuesday. It has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

http://www.latimes.com/news/custom/timespoll/la-na-poll26aug26,1,891368.story?coll=la-home-headlines

Posted by: Forrest [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 01:59 AM

Thanks, Forrest…

I find this all very interesting in that the LA Times polls tend to have a more democratic-leaning base and that they use registered vs. likely voters. Likely voter polls tend to show about a point or so shift to the Republicans in most cases. This poll is still within the margin of error and we should wait for other emerging polls coming out before the RNC in NY before we have a little better perspective on how things stand before the convention.

I also noted that in answer to the question about whether Kerry’s anti-war Viet Nam stance made any difference, 52% said it did not make any difference in their preference. 26% said that it made them less likely to vote for him. 20% said it made them more likely to vote for him. I wonder how the numbers would have broken down if the question would have been worded differently to show how much of the 52% “no difference” were either supporting or against Kerry but that the anti-war stuff was not a factor.

Gallup is also coming forth with its most recent poll later today or tomorrow. Also, Rasmussen begins polling “likely” voters separately starting Sept. 1 as an addition to its daily polls. So far, there has not been very much change in that poll either for the past several weeks, showing almost dead even results.

Posted by: steve [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 07:29 AM

you have to have a high baseline if you want to have a subsequent negative bounce story.

Posted by: wafflestomper [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 10:33 AM

Some good points, especially WS, who’s jaundiced view of the LA times is very much appreciated.

I have a hard time with polls in general and even though this is good news, I tend to be, well, skeptical, this time of the year.

Posted by: skip [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 10:39 AM

Wafflestomper, you nailed it!

The LA Times has NEVER, EVER had a positive story about George W. Bush. They are one of the most radical, anti-American propaganda hacks on the planet. They are in al-Jazeera’s league except that
they do not show beheading pictures.

So, this is their AMBUSH Bull Shit. It is the same type of believable “thing” as the 12 women that Arnold “raped or assaulted” or (so the LA Times said) in the 4 days before California’s recall election.

Both the New York and LA Times make good lining for bird cages, but that is all.

Posted by: leaddog2 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 11:12 AM

Semi OT: POW Documentary sample video clips are available HERE at this LINK.

Original link found on InDCJournal (LINK)

I want to see the polls after this airs.

Posted by: ter0 [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 26, 2004 01:18 PM

Post a comment

Thanks for signing in, . Now you can comment. (Click here should you choose to sign out.)

As you post your comment, please mind our simple comment policy: we welcome all perspectives, but require that comments be both civil and respectful. We also ask that you avoid the extensive use of profanity, racist terms (neither of which we consider civil or respectful), and other boorish language.

We reserve the right to delete any comment, and to prohibit you from commenting on this site, if we feel you have broached this policy. As a courtesy, we will first send you an email noting a violation so you understand the boundaries. This will occur only once, however, and should we ban you from our comment forums we expect that ban to be permanent.

We also will frown upon those who suggest that we ban other individuals for voicing unpopular opinions, should those opinions be voiced in a civil and respectful manner. The point of our comment threads is to provide a forum for spirited though civil and respectful discourse … it is not to provide a forum in which everyone will agree with your point of view.

If you can live by these rules, welcome aboard. If not, then we’re sorry it didn’t work out, and thanks for visiting The Command Post.


Remember me?

(You may use HTML tags for style)