Yep… Poliblogger, I agree far too many “ifs” and not yet enough “fersures” to predict this horse race.

I believe that the reason that there is a scarcity of so called undecideds is that some of these folks feel because of all the hype and hoopla, they have to side with one or the other. In the end, there may be a significant number who, while previously indicating to pollsters they are firmly committed, will change readily under the right conditions… i.e., an opportunity that gives them an out such as “Well I was for Bush all the way until (fill in your own Bush worst nighmare) happened.” Or “Well I really liked Kerry and was going to go for him until (fill in your own worst Kerry nighmare.) So far, my read of the numbers say that more of these so-called soft committed tend to be in the Democratic side as compared to the Repbulican side. Such events could have the future historians trying to figure out why a tight race for so long broke wide open in the end.

What matters most I think is the personal characteristics to a lot of typical apolitical voters… that gut feeling about a candidate. While Kerry has definitely improved in his overall likeability standings and trustworthiness, we have yet to see the full effect of the anticipated Republican offensive for Bush. As a Kerry supporter, I would love to have more cushion in these numbers before the RNC and 9-11 memorials occur, just as poliblogger suggests.

Also, while the liberal left may cherish the theatrics of the anti-war and anarchists demonstrators against Bush and the Repbulicans, these type of antics tend to do down badly in the South and MidWest among more moderate folks. If the media focuses too much on these activists, it could backfire on the Dems in the end… sort of “guilt by association.”

Posted by: steve at August 17, 2004 05:07 PM

Oops…

My mistake in posting… the sentence should read, “If I were a Kerry support…” instead of “As a Kerry supporter…”

Sorry about the confusion as I know that most of my fellow spinners on this site know that I’m leaning toward the Republicans and the current C-in-C.

Posted by: steve at August 17, 2004 05:12 PM

couple of Kerry political cartoons here (scroll down for the second one)

Posted by: CERDIP at August 17, 2004 11:14 PM

Kerry folks will be dealing with stuff like this before too long. The spin ought to be delicious:

I don’t believe a man with a character like John Kerry’s could be a war criminal. I believe he lied to the Senate in 1971.

What is the War Hero Afraid of?

Form 180. Release ALL the records.

Posted by: M. Simon at August 18, 2004 12:58 AM

John Kerry is no liar. I believe his 1971 Senate testimony when he said he committed war crimes.

There is no statute of limitations on war crimes.

What is the War Hero Afraid of?

Form 180. Release ALL the records.

Posted by: M. Simon at August 18, 2004 01:01 AM

So now you have a choice. Kerry is a war criminal or a liar.

Your choice.

Its over. No way he gets past this let alone voting against intel and military for 20+ years.

Perhaps the Senator would care to run on his Senate record?

What is the War Hero Afraid of?

Form 180. Release ALL the records.

Posted by: M. Simon at August 18, 2004 01:09 AM

I for one, hope kerry gets elected.

It’s clear that Amerikins, as this article sugests, conside this a “horse race”, neck and neck to the wire.
From this part of the world, it proves that 50% of Americans, or maybe more, are real dumb.

If kerry wins, this will be proof that more than 50% of Americans are completely retarded, and really don’t have a clue what is going on in the world.

What is sad however, is it also points to the collapse of a once good country, perhaps one of the quickest rise and fall of a nation in the history of mankind.

Come on America! the sensible people in the world are counting on you to make the right choice, and it isn’t commie kerry.

Posted by: Grand Ayatollah Nathan at August 18, 2004 01:26 AM

Here is yet another Kerry LIE.

News Max points out yet another campaign blunder, yet the main media refuses to make light of it. Lord knows if it was Bush making such blunders, they would never put it to rest.

Of course John Kerry is afraid to run on his left-wing Senate record, but does that mean he should pose as a colleague?

Imagine the screaming headlines and nationwide media ridicule if President Bush confused himself with another pol. But don’t expect the New York Times and company to report this:

In trying to defend his horrendous record on intelligence “and spin their way out of his lousy committee attendance record,” Kerry’s campaign “claimed on its website Monday, ‘John Kerry served on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence for 8 years and is the former Vice Chairman of the Committee.’ Fact is John Kerry has never – ever! – served as vice chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence,” the Republican National Committee noted today.

“Turns out, there as a senator named Bob Kerry from Nebraska who was vice chairman for a while. Kerry’s website later pulled the plug on the page, which might be construed as a metaphor for the whole campaign.”

The RNC suggested: “Instead of posting false qualifications on the campaign website, maybe it would be wiser for John Kerry and the Gang That Couldn’t’t Spin Straight to follow the advice of House Speaker Dennis Hastert, who called on the Kerry campaign Monday to end the controversy by simply releasing his committee attendance records. What are the odds?”

And thanks to Bush-Cheney ‘04 for finding this quote Feb. 10, 1994, in the Congressional Record from Kerry’s Democrat colleague Dennis DeConcini, then a U.S. senator from Arizona: “Mr. President, the Kerry amendment includes a $1 billion cut in fiscal year 1994 and $5 billion over the next 5 years from intelligence activities.”

Here’s what Rep. Hastert said Monday: “John Kerry served on the Intelligence Committee from 1993 to 2000, and according to official records, John Kerry missed 76 percent of the public Senate Intelligence Committee hearings during that time. This figure doesn’t include his attendance at closed door meetings. Those records can only be released to the public at John Kerry’s request. This is something that needs to be done, and I join Senator Roberts, Senator Chambliss, Senator Cornyn, and Senator Coleman and others in calling on him to do so, so that the American people can judge the whole picture for themselves.”

Sen. Pat Roberts, R-Kan., chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, said Sunday on “Meet the Press,” “The easiest way out of this is for John Kerry and John Edwards to request of Senator Rockefeller and myself to release the attendance hearings; not only the public hearings, which they have rebutted, but the closed hearings.”

Sen. John Warner, R-Va., said Sunday on CNN: “So I would go to what is solid, uncontrovertible fact, and that is the records that each committee keeps with regard to the attendance at every hearing of all the members, whether they’re there or not. Now, those records are available. John Kerry, if he questions the authenticity of this ad that’s out there now, should simply get those records and put them into the public domain.”

Let’s see, is there a positive spin to the fact that Kerry missed 38 of 49 public hearings of the Intelligence Committee, including the June 8, 2000, hearing on the National Commission on Terrorism’s warning about the terrorist threat? Well, at least his 22 percent attendance rate was better than his Senate attendance recently.

As I posted above, Americans can only prove one thing in this election, and that is that the majority of Americans are completely retarded, and vote kerry for president.

I can only pray, and hope than from my personal knowledge and friendship with many American people, that this isn’t so.
And, to be fair to those same people I know and respect, look what happened in Canada, 25% of the retards voted in a damn retarded, lying, crook liberal.
This is why it’s so important for each and everyone of you american who ove your country, to get out there and VOTE! You don’t want to end up like Canada, a once great country that is quickly going to hell. We still have hope, but not a whole lot, and now I pay 78% of my income to TAXES!!!!

If Americans vote in Democrats, where the hell am I going to move my business to?

Posted by: Grand Ayatollah Nathan at August 18, 2004 01:47 AM

-*

It would be so cool if JOE LEIBERMAN pulled a WINSTON CHURCHILL and crossed the floor to the Middle and United with GEORGE BUSH, what an effective Government there would be.

-

Posted by: augurwell at August 18, 2004 03:40 AM

…augurwell;I sooo agree with you. Joe Leiberman,Zell Miller are about the only ones left of the democratic party that I once aligned myself with.But ,this would be so cool ,but the liberals would crucify him…

Posted by: Rob_NC at August 18, 2004 09:39 AM

Concur on Ol’ Joe and Zell! They remind me of the old Democratic Party I used to belong to before I became a Nazi, bloodthirsty, baby-killing rapist Midshipman and Marine in 1968 that Sen. Kerry warned us all about. Seem like I’m not welcome by them anymore…

Posted by: steve at August 18, 2004 02:17 PM

And yet electoral-vote.com keeps showing wider and wider leads for Kerry. When is this news going to hit the battleground states?

Posted by: TBox at August 18, 2004 03:08 PM

I still think that the polls have a ways to go before they become relevant or predictive. There are way too many variables to start to hang anyone’s hat upon trends so far.

As far as I can tell, the polls do vary but are pretty much in synch with earlier predictions… Kerry will be slowly opening a lead until the RNC and then the numbers will fall back to about 50/50 again until the debates and/or external incidents (Iraq, Oil prices, economy, etc.) cause them to move up or down accordingly. The early October numbers may start to show a sign though.

It appears to me that except for political junkies, most folks are not even aware of all of the degree and details about the campaigns so far. Polls show that there is a higher degree of importance being felt, but a lot of the day-to-day folks I talk with are not really up on the nittgy gritty as yet. That may be one reason why events at this time do not cause much of a jump or drop one way or the other.

Posted by: steve at August 18, 2004 03:31 PM

Steve,you might be surprised.Our local paper has a section in the op-sec; letters to the editor,once a week.Always someone making a remark one way or the other.
What I `m waiting to see is the % of voters that show up .

Posted by: Rob_NC at August 19, 2004 09:11 AM