Can someone please explain to me why Gallup polls are so far out of line with ALL of the other polls?

I understand that, just as Zogby usually leans a little left, Gallup usually leans a little right, but the latest disparity is shocking to me. Most other polls show 3-7 point advantage for Kerry, while Gallup shows 3 point advantage for Bush??? I thought the first poll they did after the convention was just an abberration but now I’m wondering if there is something specific in their polling methods that is causing this? Does anyone have any ideas?

Posted by: bluedogs at August 13, 2004 12:14 PM

First of all this is still a statistical tie. Second, you are comparing apples and oranges because what was quoted here was LIKELY VOTERS and most of the other polls are stating REGISTERED VOTERS. When Gallup does registered voters right after the DNC it had Kerry ahead 49-45. What bounce Kerry got (more from naming Edwards than from the convention itself because the pre-convention number is greater than post-convention number) appears to have evaporated.

Posted by: Rich Blinne at August 13, 2004 03:24 PM

Bluedogs,

I was wondering the same. I recently checked up on the tendacies of the Gallup polls over the past two administrations. Granted I did not do any “scientific assessment” per se, but I found that over the long run, the Gallup polls tend to reflect the more consistent nature of the population in many events and areas. For example, despite the anger and rhetoric of the right duing the Clinton impeachment and Monica-gate issues, the Gallup polls showed that the country was not ready to do anything as drastic as the right wanted. Similarly, the polling about the President during the immediate post 9-11 period and just after the Iraq invasion showed comparable tendacies as the other polls, but did not show the President’s numbers nearly as positive as some other polls. They also began to show the downward trend starting in February for the President in Iraq before the prison incidents and violent uprisings in April.

I think that the Gallup is a fairly middle of the road assessment group whose swings in polling tend to be less than the others. The current Gallup numbers are pretty much consistent with what they had just prior to and immediately after the DNC. This simialr slight bump for Kerry is also showing in the daily Rasmussen polling that reflects a tight race in general.

Anyone else got a take on this? I never took the Gallup for a right of center group from all I’ve heard. I know they are teamed with the CNN or ABC and/or Time organziations that would reflect a more moderate approach.

If I had to pick one polling outfit to monitor across the board, I’d probably stick with Gallup as the more objective. It will be interesting to see if Gallup numbers move toward the results that Bluedogs is listing or vice versa over the next several weeks.

Posted by: steve at August 13, 2004 03:27 PM

“Second, you are comparing apples and oranges because what was quoted here was LIKELY VOTERS and most of the other polls are stating REGISTERED VOTERS.”

No true. See:

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm

Posted by: Colonel Blimp at August 22, 2004 11:53 AM