Sabato isn’t too smart. Regarding MN, which he GIVES to Kerry, he says:

“This is not your father’s Minnesota. The land of Hubert Humphrey and Walter Mondale has of late produced Independent Governor Jesse Ventura, Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty, and GOP U.S. Senator Norm Coleman. And with the aid of Ralph Nader’s 127,000 votes, George Bush came within 58,000 votes of upending Al Gore back in 2000. A Bush victory here in ’04 is not impossible, but it’s unlikely. Minnesota has changed, but not enough to propel Bush past Kerry unless a landslide is in the offing.”

Please note that MN has been electing republicans of late and that Bush only lost the state by 58,000 votes in 2000 and Bush is now an incumbent while Gore had more “incumbent-like” characteristics in 2000 than Bush.

I personally did a phone survey on Saturday of a small sample (100’s) of independent voters in MN and there was a 3:1 preference for Bush over Kerry. THREE.TO.ONE.

There are WAY more Bush/Cheney bumper stickers running around here than Kerry, except maybe in South Minneapolis.

My crystal ball shows me a different picture than Sabato’s.

Posted by: Max Darkside at August 8, 2004 02:56 PM

This article is absurd. Bush hasnt even had his convention yet.

Posted by: mark buehner at August 8, 2004 04:14 PM

It’s interesting that Sabato should say this following the statement by St. Paul Mayor Randy Kelly, a democrat, that he will back President Bush.

Sabato tends to be somewhat pessimistic overall (depending on what side you’re on, of course). But I agree with the posts above - Minnesota has had some surprises in the last few elections, and it’s too early in the race to draw conclusions one way or the other.

Posted by: Jim at August 8, 2004 04:51 PM

This is the same sort of academic/pundidiotcy that got the Dems the spineless boar of a candidate they have today. They float this unverifiable crap as conventional, learned wisdom (like “electability”) and the parrot press goes off and beats into everybody’s head until you don’t hear anything else.

How can a candidate who got no discernible benefit from his four-day infomercial convention be considered a lock to win anything? Nobody is FOR this guy and there are a lot of people against him.

Hopefully, somebody will come out and slam this crap for what it is before it becomes the accepted “wisdom”.

Posted by: TL at August 8, 2004 04:58 PM

I agree that the electorate is in a sour mood, but I think this guy is being way optimistic. Its pretty much a dead heat right now and the Republicans have yet to have their convention.

Posted by: rdelephant at August 8, 2004 05:07 PM

Would Sadr and Osama in custody be “Miracle” Enough?

Posted by: Proxy Pundit at August 8, 2004 06:58 PM

I doubt most Americans even know who Sadr is. Catching Bin Laden would certainly help, but I am not holding my breath

Posted by: rdelephant at August 8, 2004 07:07 PM

“I doubt most Americans even know who Sadr is.” - rdelephant

Truly, we have no idea who he is. We were hoping a liberal would come along and explain it all for us.

(How will you folks count votes if you can’t get your nose out of the air?)

Posted by: torpedo_eight at August 8, 2004 08:22 PM

Actually, this is delightful.

In 2000, the Democrats closed at the very end with a cheap trick (the DUI story), GOP complacency, and a strong GOTV close by Gore.

In 2002, the GOP made strong results of a determined GOTV effort late, and took advantage of Dem arrogance.

This kind of attitude now by the Dems and their suporters will only help Bush in the debates (remember Gore’s eye-roll and sighing?), and if they don’t learn, can mean a substantial Bush win in November.

Sabato should have stuck with his numbers from last year, instead of opening a Kool-Aid stand.

Posted by: DJDrummond at August 8, 2004 09:59 PM

The convention is coming….The debates are coming…Kerry is looking long in the face…Teresa is getting testy and has taken to wearing fruity hats!!

Kerry is being discredited as a ‘strong’ leader, since he didn’t even see a hospital and won medals! Four months as a Jr. Lieutenant on a boat of less than 10 people does not qualify him to lead the greatest nation on earth. However, there is a job stirring the tomato vat at the Heinz company in Bangkok. Oh, and you thought Teresa was against outsoucing. If John don’t win, he be gone…better hold onto those SUV’s my man.

Posted by: dickmr at August 8, 2004 10:13 PM

Has anybody else noticed that Edwards is pretty much muzzled lately?

What’s up with that?

Chads

Posted by: Chads at August 8, 2004 10:41 PM

Teresa is getting testy and has taken to wearing fruity hats!!

Kerry married Carmen Miranda?

Who knew?

Posted by: M. Simon at August 9, 2004 01:40 AM

I don’t think MO will even be close when it comes to election time. The economies in St. Louis, Kansas City, and Columbia are pretty much red hot. A freind of mine who builds and sells outbuildings will do nearly a million dollars in his second year. This is with less than 10 guys. MO is also voting very conservative and we just kicked out our Dem governor in the primaries. First time thats happened. It’ll be interesting for sure.

Chads

Posted by: Chads at August 9, 2004 08:56 AM

..never under estimate your opponent.All GW needs to do is stay positive keep his nose to the grounding wheel and he will do fine..The war is what war is its ebb and tide,the swamp is drying up,inch-by-inch.Question is do you be part of the problem or part of the solution?
The economy needs strength in leadership which Kerry does not possess,IMO.He changes his stance at the drop of a hat.Do you really want to follow a man that is so indecisive,I think not..which is GW`s strength no one will ever say he was afraid to make a decision and stick to it..”IF A MAN DOES NOT TAKE A STAND, HE WILL STAND FOR ANYTHING”

Posted by: Rob_NC at August 9, 2004 09:29 AM