This site has a very good design to depict electoral votes. I especially like the map format. However, it is so riddled with mean spirited anti-Bush propaganda that it effectively ruins their credibility.

I truly wonder if they would ever show Bush ahead, for any length of time, or if the whole thing is just an exercise in deception.

Posted by: apertyx at August 5, 2004 10:27 PM

apertyx - Ditto

Clever map but bad info. Just look at the numbers and the state by state trends shown on this site. They don’t correspond to anything else I’ve seen out there.

Posted by: Jim at August 5, 2004 11:03 PM

Margin of error?

I don’t see how you can conclude that the info is bad, since it comes from available polls? The site’s author acknowledges he’s a Kerry supporter, but the map itself seems accurate as far as the polls are reported.

I would like to see info on the margin of error put in there though. If the numbers are within the margin of error, the states should be places in the “exactly equal” camp, since there is no possible conclusion that can be made from them.

If you take out “barely kerry” and “barely Bush,” the conclusion is that who wins in the electoral college votes still cannot be determined.

Posted by: Roy at August 6, 2004 12:10 AM

Jim, if anything, I think he is lowballing the numbers, look at http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html (EV’s: Bush 211, Kerry 327
Pct: Bush 47.2%, Kerry 51.0%), and http://www.race2004.net/ (If Nader is on the ballot, Kerry wins the presidency with 291 electoral votes. Bush places second with 234 electoral votes.

If Nader is not on the ballot, Kerry wins the presidency with 300 electoral votes. Bush places second with 238 electoral votes.)

He’s actually down the middle between a Bush supporter (Blogging Caesar) and the Kerry supporter.

Posted by: Lakhim at August 6, 2004 12:15 AM

In fact…looking at blogging Caesar’s site, he should have moved Ohio into Bush’s column, brining the EV value to 307 for Kerry, 231 for Bush. Right in line with the electoral-vote site.

Posted by: Lakhim at August 6, 2004 12:21 AM

Nope. Not the way I read the numbers. To get these results you’d have to give most of the “toss up” states to Kerry. Further, it depends on who they are counting: adults, registered voters or likely voters.

This looks like a “feel good” site for Kerry supporters.

Posted by: Jim at August 6, 2004 01:14 AM

Jim - Look at the election projection site I gave you, that guy is rooting for Bush all the way and is coming up with the same result as the Kerry supporter. I don’t think he is biased. (Remember, we are coming off of the DNC bounce, which did occur, despite many articles to the contrary)

Posted by: Lakhim at August 6, 2004 01:17 AM

Roy -

“I don’t see how you can conclude that the info is bad, since it comes from available polls?”

You’re right. I should have phrased it differently.

Lakhim - This goes to your question:

“Look at the election projection site I gave you, that guy is rooting for Bush all the way and is coming up with the same result as the Kerry supporter. I don’t think he is biased.”

Agreed. Using the site you referenced, their numbers are roughly the same. BTW, thanks for the site; the break down of the data is easier to get at.

If you scroll down the page of “electionprojection”, you see a breakdown state by state. Using these numbers, which we all understand are still in flux, you get a different picture than the 291-234 shown yesterday. BTW, the numbers on the “Electoral Predictor” site have changed today (280-254 in favor of Kerry). Nonetheless, to get to the electoral total numbers shown on both sites, you have to take those states that are (by their numbers) “leaning” and place them in Kerry’s column.

Now, if you go to the Rasmussen site, the numbers show Kerry with a lead 232-197 with 109 votes in the toss up category. For this time in the race, given the small bounce that I agree Kerry got out of his convention, those numbers look more realistic.

When you look at the popular vote tracking numbers, they stand somewhere in the area of 48% (Kerry) - 46% (Bush). You have to consider that a large part of those numbers are taken on the edges of country (New York & California) which aren’t going to go to Bush under anyone’s estimates. Take out those numbers and do the math. The results aren’t very positive for Kerry.

I pay attention to a number of things. 1) Which states are in play and which way are they trending; 2) How are the congressional races trending in those states; 3) What do the economic confidence numbers show; and 4) What to the numbers look like on leadership characteristics. These are the numbers Rasmussen shows today:

Updated Weekly
Who is a Better Leader? Bush 46 Kerry 41
Trust on Nat’l Defense? Bush 49 Kerry 45
Trust to Manage Economy? Bush 46 Kerry 46
Winning the War on Terror US 45 Terrorists 27
How is Bush handling Iraq Ex/Good 43 Poor 43
How is Bush handling Econ Ex/Good 42 Poor 41

I like the Rasmussen poll because the state by state numbers are updated daily, and it takes into consideration the economy and the data shown above.

Even though it’s too early to be showing total projections on electoral votes, it’s an interesting exercise. So, thanks again for the electionprojection site.

Posted by: Jim at August 6, 2004 01:36 PM

correction: that’s 280 - Kerry to 258 - Bush on the Electoral Predictor today

Posted by: Jim at August 6, 2004 01:46 PM