maybe the democratic base was thrown off by all the flags, references to God, the salute, and the pledge of allegiance. being both patriotic and God-fearing starts you on that long dark road to conservatism {{shudder}}

could be because the kerry voters had no time for polls - still debating whether we have one america or two.

or maybe its because kerry is too black/white, right/wrong on issues like capital punishment, the iraq war, gay marriage, abortion, nclb, patriot act… (naw, that ain’t it)

possibly because teresa being as cuddly as marge schott just doesn’t carry the same demographics that it used to.

perhaps because ‘not bush’ is not such a viable strategy after all. every politico knows stem cell research can only take you so far - that’s polisci 101, friends.

Posted by: wafflestomper at August 3, 2004 01:08 AM

The USAToday/Gallup Poll may indeed be an aboration:

Convention Gives Kerry Slight Lead Over Bush
By Richard Morin and Dan Balz
Washington Post Staff Writers
Tuesday, August 3, 2004; Page A01
Democratic presidential nominee John F. Kerry emerged from his national convention with a small lead over President Bush in the race for the White House and improved his standing against the president on the economy and who is better qualified to serve as commander in chief, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The poll showed Kerry with the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent.
Among those most likely to vote, the race is tighter: Kerry holds a two-percentage-point advantage over Bush in the current poll.
By historical standards, Kerry’s post-convention bounce is modest, at best — a fact that set off a debate between the candidates’ campaign advisers. The Bush team said Kerry’s failure to gain more significant ground from his national convention puts him at a serious disadvantage for the fall, while Kerry advisers said the electorate is already so polarized and partisans so energized that there was far less chance for a big bounce this year.

• * *

The Post-ABC News poll suggests Kerry benefited from his convention. His support among voters increased four percentage points while Bush’s dropped by an equal amount, about half the historic average, according to data collected by political scientist James Campbell of the State University of New York at Buffalo.
Other polls suggested a somewhat smaller bounce for Kerry, or no increase at all. Interviewing for Newsweek and Gallup polls ended Friday and Saturday, respectively, while interviews for the Post-ABC poll ended Sunday night. Taken together, all the recent surveys suggest no dramatic surge in support for the Democrat, though most found that Kerry had improved his standing with voters on key issues and traits.
According to the Post-ABC survey, Kerry has regained much of the ground he had lost to Bush on a broad range of issues immediately before the convention. The Democrat reclaimed the advantage over Bush as the candidate best able to deal with the economy, transforming a one-point deficit into an 11-point lead on this key voting issue.
Kerry also runs about even with Bush as the candidate best able to deal with the situation in Iraq and has erased the president’s double-digit advantage on the campaign against terrorism.
At the same time, Kerry increased his advantage on education and health care, issues where he now leads the president by a dozen or more percentage points.
Efforts by Democrats to counter GOP claims that Kerry would be a weak and indecisive leader also showed at least temporary and partial success. Bush still is viewed as the stronger leader, but Kerry has managed to cut the president’s advantage by more than half. Currently 50 percent of all voters see Bush as the stronger leader while 44 percent say Kerry is.
The Democrat is now viewed, by 47 percent to 41 percent, as more honest and trustworthy than Bush. Immediately before the convention, those numbers were essentially reversed. Kerry also has widened his advantage as the candidate who best understands the problems of average Americans. And Bush was seen on the eve of the convention as the candidate who most closely shared their values. Now, Kerry has an advantage over Bush, 50 percent to 44 percent.
The survey also suggests that perceptions of Kerry as a pessimist may have eased somewhat. He is now viewed more favorably than Bush by the public. And the proportion who say he is an optimist rose from 55 percent on the eve of the convention to 65 percent immediately after. Overall, 56 percent of Kerry’s supporters say they were “very enthusiastic” about him, compared with 41 percent barely a week earlier.
Bush’s approval rating stood at 47 percent, with 49 percent saying they disapproved of how he is handling his job. That represents a statistically insignificant deterioration in his standing on a crucial indicator.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A34914-2004Aug2.html

I think the convention solidified Kerry’s base, but the undecideds will remain so until after the debates. To which, I say, Bring them ON.

Posted by: Todd at August 3, 2004 08:38 AM

The Democrats always reach for the dregs of the eligable voters - those bottomfeeders.

While we are all in favor of young people voting - we must admit most young people dont have a clue. Then there are the wackos, an important Democrat base element. It is hard to get these potheads to finish a sentence let alone give a comital to a poll interviewer.

Analysis suggests that while Democrats did not move, Republicans did get a small bounce.

The Convention energized Republicans and the silent supporters who object to all of the hostile language from the left. There are many who truly “love” the President and are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

I heard a Democrat pundant claim that hate is a powerful motivater - they are counting on it to win.

Posted by: Agrippa at August 3, 2004 08:52 AM

What the poll said:

Overall, 56 percent of Kerry’s supporters say they were “very enthusiastic” about him, compared with 41 percent barely a week earlier.

What Agrippa said:

Analysis suggests that while Democrats did not move, Republicans did get a small bounce.

This, however, is a true statement:

There are many who truly “love” the President and are still willing to give him the benefit of the doubt.

This is true even when he flip-flops and gives vague policy goals without telling how he will acomplish them.

Posted by: Todd at August 3, 2004 09:11 AM

The greater Key Question is:

Why does anyone take the polls published by Gannet seriously?

Posted by: Don at August 3, 2004 11:02 AM

because some politicians have no inner compass to tell them how they feel on issues.

follow up to the key question: do gallup polls become flawed when published by gannett co. inc.?

Posted by: wafflestomper at August 3, 2004 11:30 AM

why no bounce?

all the kings horses and all the kings men…

Posted by: skip at August 3, 2004 01:21 PM

No bounce?

Kerry also has widened his advantage as the candidate who best understands the problems of average Americans. And Bush was seen on the eve of the convention as the candidate who most closely shared their values. Now, Kerry has an advantage over Bush, 50 percent to 44 percent.

Posted by: Todd at August 3, 2004 03:47 PM

Kerry increased his advantage in other areas as well. When asked ‘who would you rather have tend to your injured hamster?’, Kerry increased his advantage 13 points from before the convention.

as todd shows us, the bounce is there. you just have to look for it.

Posted by: wafflestomper at August 3, 2004 04:12 PM

bottom line, if the convention had done it’s work, there’d be no story. Todd wouldn’t have to dig into question 27 on poll 54 to find an improvement in Kerry’s polls.

So in this cases no news would have been good news for Kerry. Also as the bounce buzz continues to reverberate across news cycles it becomes locked in as “conventional wisdom”.

then Kerry has to sail against even more headwind. Bad enough he’s got a lousy record and is as stiff as corpse in rigor mortis, now the poll numbers keep making news.

Oh boy.

Posted by: skip at August 3, 2004 04:16 PM

Dig?

The poll showed Kerry with the support of 50 percent of all registered voters, compared with 44 percent for Bush, with independent Ralph Nader at 2 percent. On the eve of the convention, Bush led Kerry 48 percent to 46 percent.

The Gallup Poll reported in June that there tends to be a 100% correlation between a voter’s choice and their perception that a candidate shares the same values as they do. The WaPo poll seems to verify this, hence my previous post.

But, by all means gents, fiddle while Rome burns.

Posted by: Todd at August 3, 2004 04:51 PM

Todd,

Man you need to quit the cocaine for awhile. Your reality is seriously warped if you saw anything positive from those negative Democrats.

Posted by: leaddog2 at August 3, 2004 08:07 PM

-*

“Bounce the pudin’, shake the pudin’, bbounce the pudin’, shake…”

Shake ‘em on down,, shake ‘em on down….shake ‘em on down to china town….

Now, as we get seriously engaged in this fray don’t forget to harpoon your favorite “Stupid White Whale.”

The only poll I’d like to see makes C> Powell the V.P.
-
PS “I hold these truths to be self evident.” , ” We hold a dream; she’sa so beautiful.”

Our day time job requires us to be non political. Nord ^
-

Posted by: augurwell at August 4, 2004 05:54 AM

fair enough stat, todd.
some, like kaus at slate, have stated that the pre-convention baseline poll that abc conducted was the aberration in that it was unusually pro-bush (+2 bush). others will generally use the likely voter (the 49-47 kerry lead), as opposed to registered, to measure bounce. my opinion is that abc wanted to write a story about a kerry bounce, thus their comparisons. i don’t think they deliberately skewed their baseline poll, but it worked in the favor of the slant that they wanted to report.

interestingly, the abc-wapo poll noted that 23 percent of the people noted the war in iraq as the #1 issue. of those people, they favor kerry 72 to 26 percent. i can look for this stat, but off the cuff, it was like 70 percent of dems oppose the war in iraq, and 90 percent of the delegates at the convention.

kerry supported changing saddam’s regime. at one point, anyway - i don’t know if he does this week.

assuming that some of these dems that oppose the war cite iraq as their #1 issue, there is a chunk of people that are voting for, and have nominated, someone who does not share their values.

Posted by: wafflestomper at August 4, 2004 10:47 AM

In the contiuing saga of the post convention polls, I recommend reading the most recent article by Gallup:

http://www.gallup.com/

For example, Gallup analysis finds:

“Among the broad sample of national adults, Kerry gained slightly during the time of the convention on the ballot as well as in terms of his image and issue positioning. Among registered voters, Kerry lost slightly on the ballot, while gaining a little or maintaining similar positioning on image and issues. Among likely voters, Kerry lost a little more ground on the trial-heat ballot, and lost ground on most image and issue dimensions as well.”

Further into the article there is this also:

“So, overall, the convention’s net result was slightly favorable for Kerry, both on the ballot and on specific issue and image dimensions, among the general adult population of Americans.

But not all Americans vote. Most analyses of the electorate in a pre-election environment focus on the smaller sample of Americans who are registered to vote, or the still smaller sample of those deemed most likely to vote.

And within these groups of voters, Kerry’s convention gains essentially disappear.”

Food for thought.

BTW, I for one appreciate the more thought provoking analysis many of you are making in looking into the numbers behind the polls. Several of you are making excellent points both pro and con the two major candidates.

Posted by: steve at August 4, 2004 02:31 PM