The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
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August 02, 2004
| Reviewing the Race

While Senator Kerry had a well-run convention, it lacked specifics and didn’t really move his campaign to another level. As a result, he is experiencing either a small bounce, or a negative one (depending on the poll one consults). Hence, President Bush starts the month in great shape: a small-to-no bounce to overcome, at least $30 million to spend going into his convention, and an opponent who has to hold off on serious spending until September.

The details and a round-up of news and blogospheric reactions can be found at PoliBlog where you will find this week’s Toast-O-Meter .



Posted by Steven L. Taylor at August 2, 2004 08:51 AM | TrackBack
Comments

HATE vs LOVE.

Most analysis of this bounce result is that it has energized Republicans and supporters of the President, more than it has won-over those on the fence.

To lean toward the Democrats you have to reject the basic principals of respect. That the President is just a man and would make decisions like an average joe.

This is extrodinary in light of the increasing hostile rhetoric of hatred, and unprecedented propaganda.

The bottom line is that love for the President is on the rise, while hatred may have hit its peak.

Despite legitimate cause for doubt as the Iraq situation remains a challenge, people still recognize the realities of the struggle in a larger war.

Given the intended affect of the Michael Moore movie, this propaganda has had an effect that has yet to be understood. Not to mention all of the books.

Events on the horizon will galvanize both sides, but these events are likely to be in the President’s favor.

Aug 15 - Olympics with Iraqi atheletes broadcast via satellite to every corner of the world. Will this be an opportunity for a terrorist attack, or inspiration?

Aug 30 - RNC Convention in New York, and the protesters planned disruption. Will it spiral into violence that supports or condemns the protests?

September - Elections in Afghanistan. Opportunity for terror or inspiration.

October - Arrival of larger NATO force to train Iraqi secutrity forces. Will these forces come up short, or begin a patriotic offensive to rout foreign terrorists?

Before the elections we can expect events in Saudi Arabia against terrorist. We can also expect more results in Pakistan and Afghanistan. UN or NATO support for an Arab neighbor force in Iraq may be realized. Threats against the British and Italians will be met with arrests. France will probably enter into chaos as the “headscarf” issue brings protests and violence. Syria is even looking for a path to a Lybian style compromise. This may lead to answers on the WMD questions and relieve some of the foreign terrorist pressure in Iraq.

Today the top of mind consern is terror attacks on the homeland. These attacks are imminent, but may be thwarted. This will keep us on the edge of our seats, and will give many the cause to decide how we feel about the results ahead of time. “If they succeed then I will feel this way. If they fail then I will feel this way.”

Posted by: Agrippa [TypeKey Profile Page] at August 2, 2004 10:28 AM

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