This was utterly to be expected. So many people (81 % in the poll I saw) said they had made up their minds before the convention on both sides that there was not much of an undecided slice to carve into. The Republiacnas will likely get a simliar sized bounce back after their convention and then the debates (and possibly world events) will decide the issue.

Posted by: rdelephant at July 31, 2004 04:48 PM

How about we get a command post post on how Bush’s approval ratings have slipped (again), how Bush’s lead in terrorism has slipped (again) and that 58% of the voters don’t like the direction that Bush is taking the country, instead of one trumpeting the ‘small’ bounce that Kerry got.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 06:59 PM

ROFLMAO Lakhim!

Last month you and your fellow lefties complained that Alan and Michele didn’t post a fair share of articles about Kerry. You accused Alan and Michele of being .. (gasp) REPUBLICANS.. (shriek) RIGHT-WINGERS!

NOW you complain that they ARE posting articles about Kerry.

Did you mean that they should only post CERTAIN articles about Kerry that you have pre-approved for release?

Posted by: TexasGal at July 31, 2004 07:40 PM

A. That comment was about bias, and it was about the viewing audience of the command post.

B. I‘m mearly pointing out what else is in the article that was cited that was left out by the blogger in question, who is not Alan or Michele.

C. Those things are just as, if not more important then the bounce.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 07:45 PM

Lakhim,

What a pile of manure. If you look at a general cross-section of recent polls, none seem to paint a picture even close to your vision, even when conducted by liberal sources.

The issue of size of bounce was widely talked about before the convention, so a poll conducted to look specifically at “the bounce” is certainly a more relevant news topic than other general polling results, most of which are still meaningless anyway. From the polling information I have seen regarding the bounce, 4% is actually high end - I have seen 1-5%. With it being high end of range and still smallest in history, it is relevant.

Face it - the cummulative evidence certainly suggests that your candidates are losing momentem quickly and you just hate to see it in writing because you don’t want to believe it.

You will believe it - in November.

The Johns will be flushed and the campaign of “Hope is on the way” (in other words, let’s not fight terror, let’s hope we’re not attacked) will be over.

Posted by: I collect political items at July 31, 2004 08:02 PM

(in other words, let’s not fight terror, let’s hope we’re not attacked) will be over.

YEP!

Marketing is one of my areas of expertise.

That slogan .. Hope is on the way.. is also intended to reach a certain market that relates to Clinton and Hope, AK. This is risky in of itself. It portrays a return to the 90’s when we were “prosperous and felt safe.” That only plays to the Democrats base. It won’t play to the undecided, especially with the release of the 9/11 Commission Report. How could any undecided voter listen to Clinton talk about the War on Terror at the DNC Convention and not hold him responsible of his failure to take action against OBL? It was on all of their minds.

I was listening to some discussion today relative to how the Bush camp has overtaken the Kerry camp in the area of marketing. It’s true. They have. The “Taking Back America” has been trumped by the “We have turned the corner and not going Back”.

Back has been defined as return by the Bush team.

No undecided wants that.

The undecided vote will undoubtedly be influenced by the upcoming debates, but with an election as close as this one is expected to be, you really can’t afford to sacrifice your marketing. Kerry’s people are no match for the invisible Karen Hughes.

Posted by: TexasGal at July 31, 2004 08:41 PM

“Still, Kerry and Edwards have gained ground on several key election issues. For the first time in the NEWSWEEK poll, as many voters strongly back Kerry as strongly back Bush (31 percent to 30 percent). In an election expected to be decided by a small number of unaffiliated voters, independents now lean toward Kerry by a margin of 45 percent to 39 percent, with Nader pulling 7 percent. And voters are becoming more likely to predict a Kerry victory in November: Forty-four percent say Kerry will win vs. 43 percent who predict Bush.

Voters are deadlocked at 46 percent over who they would trust more with handling the situation in Iraq (Bush had enjoyed a 15 point lead in March). They also just barely prefer Bush to Kerry (48 percent to 43 percent) on handling terror and homeland security, issues on which they had preferred the president by 21 points in March. This is significant because the top issues among voters are terrorism (21 percent), the economy (19 percent), Iraq (18 percent) and health care (15 percent).

Kerry gets higher ratings as someone who can be trusted “to make the right decisions during an international crisis” (53 percent Kerry versus 48 percent Bush). Six in 10 voters (58 percent) are dissatisfied with the direction the country is headed and, domestically, more voters believe Bush’s policies have hurt (43 percent) rather than helped (33 percent) the economy. Voters also feel they would far more trust Kerry (55 percent) than Bush (32 percent) with issues pertaining to health care and Medicare.

Meanwhile, Bush’s own approval ratings continue to slip. Forty-five percent say they approve of the job the president is doing vs. 49 percent who disapprove. Three weeks ago, Bush’s approval rating was 48 percent; his high was 82 percent in the week after the September 11 attacks.

The best news the Bush campaign gets out of the NEWSWEEK poll is that Kerry’s stance on the gay marriage issue lies outside of the mainstream. Voters choose Bush’s less permissive stance on gay marriage by a wide margin (46 percent to 33 percent) as the position that best reflects their own views. However, this potential wedge issue may be tempered by the fact that voters vastly prefer Kerry’s progressive stance on stem cell research by a margin of 53 percent to 26 percent.”

Verbratim political, right out of the poll sited by the blogger.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 08:46 PM

*cited…less caffeine is good.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 08:47 PM

Texas Gal - And because OBL was such a threat to the United States, Bush took action immediately after taking office to crush him and his terrorist network. Riiggghhhtttt.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 08:49 PM

Lajhim

with all due respect, why don’t you get your own blog and stop whining. Is it not clear to you that the hosts bust ass to put a nice product on the table and all you do is carp. It is disgusting. Do better or can it.

I read that the pre speech portion of the poll was much less pro-Kerry than the post speech part of the poll. This may be misleading. Give it a few and Kerry may have a nicer bounce.

Posted by: jones at July 31, 2004 08:58 PM

The polls are early and will change with the monster mashing the dems have coming in the next few weeks. Lakhim, why haven’t you guys brought up your penchant for choosing to kill babies or to stick your penis wherever you want to and call it marriage? When the Republicans fire up these issues you guys will look terribly like the Hollywood liberals. Oh, I hear the fumigators have finally finished fumigating the Xerox machine that Whoppi copied her Bush on!! Liberals suck!! Even if they win, Kerry will be marginalized by a Republican controlled legislative body…and he’ll now NEVER get a liberal judge past them either!! Too fricken funny Lakhim…you lose either way!

Posted by: dickmr at July 31, 2004 08:58 PM

Lakhim that is.

Posted by: jones at July 31, 2004 08:59 PM

Texas Gal - And because OBL was such a threat to the United States, Bush took action immediately after taking office to crush him and his terrorist network. Riiggghhhtttt.

Yes, you’re right .. Bush did.

He took the steps to put together a plan to roll back the strategy of the Clinton administration and put together a strategy to eliminate bin Laden.

I guess you haven’t been listening, but that’s not surprising.

Posted by: TexasGal at July 31, 2004 09:10 PM

Texas Gal - Care to cough up a source?

Jones - Alan and Michele want to run an unbiased site, I am just giving a criticism of what I see as a bias. I don’t have the time to run a blog, nor do I have the skills to do so. Maybe later.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 09:22 PM

No, they wish to run a good site. That is all. Again, if you accept the King’s coin, do the King’s bidding.

Posted by: jones at July 31, 2004 09:43 PM

Sure Lakhim.

Here it is. Dr. Rice’s testimony with the 9-11 Commission

Go to “The Commission held its ninth public hearing, with testimony from Dr. Condoleezza Rice, April 8, 2004 in Washington, DC.”

They even have a video archived to make it easier for you to comprehend.

Oh yeah. Let me guess.

First.

Bush was too scared to let her testify for fear of what she would say.

Then.

What she said was a lie.

Right?

Posted by: TexasGal at July 31, 2004 09:55 PM

A whole lot of heat here… need to cool down some I think.

One poll does not a trend make. Just now, there are several polls out who contradict each other. The most recent ABC-Washington Post Poll (which tends to favor Democratic candidates) was showing a major swing just before the convention toward Bush on all but one area. This is kinda suspect since their earlier polls did not show a trend to that extent. It’ll take another ABC-WP poll to substaniate it or refute as an anomaly.

While the polls that included input from folks who haad seen or heard abou the DNC are just now coming in, just like the Time poll, these are showing a small bounce. This is what has been predicted along with a similar size bounce for the Republicans next month.

It will probably be September before the true trends start to show across all polls.

Posted by: steve at July 31, 2004 10:00 PM

Bad link texas gal.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 10:26 PM

Here ya go.

http://www.9-11commission.gov/hearings/index.htm

Go to “The Commission held its ninth public hearing, with testimony from Dr. Condoleezza Rice, April 8, 2004 in Washington, DC.” and read Dr. Rice’s testimony.

Posted by: TexasGal at July 31, 2004 10:49 PM

I stand corrected, thank you Texas Gal.

Posted by: Lakhim at July 31, 2004 11:30 PM

A few notes on the history of convention bounces in this article: http://wfmynews2.gannettonline.com/election2004/gns/benedetto-20040723.html

Given that IMHO there’s only around 20% of the electorate which may consider both candidates - around 80% seem staunchly R or D - the lack of much of a bounce could be seen as Kerry blowing one of his best chances to sway undecideds (the others being the debates). Another interpretation is that despite GWB’s high negatives, Kerry still hasn’t been able to open a sizeable lead - a lot of folks are looking for a viable alternative, but haven’t been convinced that Kerry is it.

Given that the Repub. convention is coming up + the traditional advantages any incumbent has, I still think its Bush’s campaign to lose, moreso than Kerry’s to win.

Posted by: tagryn at August 1, 2004 12:21 AM

Poll, and article, are misleading. Here’s what is says in the bottom of the story:

“For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,010 adults aged 18 and older July 29 and July 30 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.”

Polls conducted are generally considered accurate in this order:

1. Likely voters
2. Registered voters
3. Adults

A poll of adults is the least reliable. They also tend to show a Democratic bias.

When you winnow a sample down to people who are actually likely to be voting on 11/2, by asking questions like “Did you vote in the last presidential election” or “Are you even registered to vote?” the polls are more reliable. Polls of adults tend to reflect what is on the news that week, and are prone to wide swings.

What is even more misleading by Newsweek is that throughout the article when referring to the sample group, they call them “voters”. Yet by their own admission they are only interviewing “adults”. There is no evidence that anyone in the sample actually intends to vote.

Posted by: DWC at August 1, 2004 08:34 AM

You’re welcome Lakhim. Happy to be of assistance.

Posted by: TexasGal at August 1, 2004 10:37 AM

The key to the Kerry election is how the American public reacts to his Winter Soldier testimony of ‘71.

Bush is going to help Kerry get well established as a war veteran. Then he will bring up - probably at the end of the campaign where it will do the most good - Kerry’s testimony.

His anti-Americanism will show through. His sucking up to communists. Not a pretty picture. This is all history so the Dems can’t claim dirty tricks or misrepresentations.

Did I mention Obama the Socialist? Actually was a member of the Socialist Party. He is the future of the party?

1. Socialism is dead
2. The war is important

That leaves civil liberties. Think of Democrat leaning (Lieberman/Nunn) libertarians vs the Religious Right.

Don’t worry. A Bush win will destroy the Republicans just as effectively as it will destroy the Democrats. Read my 16 May 03 bit here.

Posted by: M. Simon at August 2, 2004 12:34 AM

Kerry barely got the dead cat bounce in a very favorable poll.

Bush in a landslide.

Posted by: M. Simon at August 2, 2004 12:38 AM