The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
July 21, 2004
Kerry | Poll: Kerry Leading 2-1 Among Registered Latinos

WaPo reports a new poll that has Kerry leading Bush among Hispanic registered voters 2-1. They also note that:

The findings suggest that, at this point in the campaign, Bush is falling short of his goal of notably improving on the 35 percent share of the Hispanic vote he received four years ago, although his advisers said they believe he is still on track to do so. Kerry advisers, in contrast, said they are determined to keep Bush from winning as much of the Hispanic vote as he did in 2000.

The details: The survey of 1,605 registered Latino voters was sponsored by The Post, the Univision Spanish language television network, and the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute (TRPI), an independent think tank affiliated with the University of Southern California.



Posted by Alan at July 21, 2004 09:30 PM | TrackBack
Comments

They must not be talkin’ to mis primos . (My cousins) I’ve got a few relatives who live in the Hermosillo, Sonora area part of the year but who are American citizens registered to vote on this side of la linea. A bunch on my mother’s family left California in the mid 1850’s and went back to Sonora. But, now the families are all tangled up in business, farming and ranching on both sides of the line. I’ve got “cousins” in Mexico who went to USC, UCLA and Stanford some have Mexican citizenship some have US. Some are dark, many are _rubios_(blondes) like me. On that side of the line they belong to PAN on this side, the GOP. Mexicans and “Mexican Americans” even sixth generation Californians like me are not a always a block. And, there are a lot of familias como nosotros , families like us.

In this side we’re pretty invisible. Well not really, some of the older men still wear Windsor knots in their ties. But, if you dress middle to upper middle class, drive the same and live in nice, big houses, you’re unremarkable and you’re not included in this kind of survey.

If you are a Dominguez and live in Palos Verdes or Brentwood, they’ll never call you. Of course they’ll never connect you with the Dominguez Hills either even though it was one of the larger land grant ranchos. If you are a Suiza (swiss) or a Hadley in Sonora, you are usually called Patron or Jefe . The point is there are a lot of “rich” Mexican Americans who are not seen as “Hispanic” even though we speak Spanish, English and maybe one or two more languages, our class transcends our ethnicity.

Thus endeth the lesson, as we say in the Anglican Communion. Yeah, not too many of us are Roman Catholics anymore either.

Posted by: Hungry Valley [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 21, 2004 11:00 PM

Quick, let me get out my calculator. Of 100 people surveyed, 2 to 1 were pro Kerry. Thus 66% to 33%. Then the article says “Bush is falling short of his goal of notably improving on the 35 percent share of the Hispanic vote he received four years ago”

So, 4 years ago he got 35% and with this poll it’s 33%, not a statistically significant change. Maybe the headline should be “Bush Holds Steady in Hispanic Vote” or “Kerry Failing to Pull Additional Hispanic Vote”

Sheesh. Creating “news” from vapor.

Posted by: Max Darkside [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2004 02:21 AM

Duhhh! I concur with the closer look at the numbers. Apparently that 2% drop is significant to the headline writer, but then maybe journalism majors are not required to take statistics in college. This poll also was among “registered voters”. Polls of “likely voters” always show a 2% to 5% swing toward Republican candidates so maybe Bush has even improved his standing among Latinos by the same “significant” 2%. Back in the Atlanta metro area, I see many Spanish language Bush bumper stickers such as “Viva El Dubya” and “El W 04”. Nice (but not a very hidden try) at doctoring the news here.

Posted by: steve [TypeKey Profile Page] at July 22, 2004 10:29 AM

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