The Houston Chronicle has the latest in a string of articles in the press regarding the coveted “swing” voter—those who register as “unaffiliated.” From the article:

Since 1987, the Democratic share in the 27 states (plus the District of Columbia) that have registered voters by party throughout this period has plummeted 8 percentage points, from 51 percent to 43 percent. The Republican share has stayed steady at 33 percent. But the proportion of voters who have not identified themselves with either of the major parties has jumped 8 percentage points, from 16 percent to 24 percent. What’s impressive about these numbers isn’t the phenomenon itself, but its staying power. Myriad polls over the past two decades have shown that voters, when asked to identify themselves politically, divide about one-third Democratic, one-third Republican and one-third independent. But in terms of registration, most have opted for one major party or the other — perhaps because, in some states, that was the only way they could vote in a party primary. Only recently have registration figures begun to reflect the poll numbers.

What’s so significant about the rise of the unaffiliated? Well, it’s one thing to tell a pollster that you consider yourself “independent.” No particular consequence arises from that self-identification. But to register as unaffiliated is a stronger statement of preference (or lack of one). Political parties talk about the “base,” and how to energize it. These numbers suggest the base is eroding, or at least is harder to identify and rely on. If that’s true, we can see a change in how the major parties conduct their campaigns, particularly in states such as Florida, where the number of registered “others” has quadrupled since 1987 and is now 20 percent (1.8 million voters).