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2004 US Presidential Election
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July 01, 2004
| Formulas Predict Bush Victory

Elaborate formulas used by some academics are predicting a Bush victory.

Most of these academics are predicting Bush, bolstered by robust economic growth, will win between 53 and 58 percent of the votes cast for him and his Democratic opponent John Kerry.

Their track record for calling election outcomes months in advance has often been surprisingly accurate. In 1988, the models projected Bush’s father, former President George Bush, would win even though Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis enjoyed a double digit poll leads that summer.



Posted by Nathan Hamm at July 1, 2004 02:31 PM | TrackBack
Comments

The same model also predicted that Gore would beat Bush with 55-60% of the vote. Nice Model

Posted by: jim beam at July 1, 2004 03:15 PM

“All the models assume the candidates will run reasonably competent campaigns”

No wonder Al-Gore lost.

Posted by: Max Darkside at July 1, 2004 04:26 PM

If I remember, the only ads I saw ABOUT Gore was his 60 Second Bio, and that was about it. Not much on his policies.

And about reasonably Competant campaigns: I think this model should hold true this time around.

Posted by: Charles Hammond Jr. at July 1, 2004 06:27 PM

A Bush victory? Ha. His numbers continue to decline daily. Oh and a majority of voters now question his honesty.
Robust economic growth my ass.

Posted by: Loofa at July 2, 2004 12:23 PM

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