The Command Post - 2004 US Presidential Election - Political Expert Sabato: Kerry Is Narrowly Ahead...And It'll Be Close

June 17, 2004

Command Post 2004 Polls | Political Expert Sabato: Kerry Is Narrowly Ahead...And It'll Be Close

In his latest version of his highly acclaimed eletter Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics, sees Kerry with a narrow lead as “the electoral college goes to summer school.”

This time Sabato offers readers a map readers can click on to get analytical state breakdowns. The map and content about each state will be periodically updated, and Sabato and his staff provide you with data from 2000, the Congressional delegation, party breakdown and margin of victory in the last race.

To read his whole piece and get state-by-state breakdowns by clicking on the map go here.

And how does it look so far for 2004? “If the election were held in June 2004, Kerry would narrowly defeat President Bush by 274 to 264 electoral votes,” he writes. However, he writes, “it’s ESSENTIAL to note” this (all of these are from his report):

“1. This is CLOSE. Anyone who believes that the election could not go either way is too partisan to be helped.
2. A June map is NOT predictive of the November results. The world will turn over several times between now and Election Day (137 times, to be exact).

3. While the electoral total is a squeaker today, we caution that the November results may not be nearly as tight. This election could break clearly in one direction come fall, or even (as in 1980) during the last week of the campaign because of late-unfolding events.

4. Notice how many big, important states are balanced on the fencepost. These include: Florida, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

5. Since every electoral vote might matter, please also note that there are more than a dozen smaller states which are reasonably competitive and could flip allegiances from the 2000 vote.

6. At least at the starting gate for the general election, the 2000 results have proven to be amazingly durable in drawing up today’s likely Electoral College picture.

7. AS OF JUNE, three small states carried by George Bush four years ago appear to be leaning ever so slightly to John Kerry: Nevada, New Hampshire, and West Virginia. There is no Gore state from 2000 currently leaning to Bush, though Wisconsin seems to be the President’s best bet. Bush is also unmistakably in the hunt for prizes such as Pennsylvania, and maybe Michigan.
The Crystal Ball will update the map at regular intervals—and more frequently with the onset of Labor Day.”

“REMEMBER ABOVE ALL: Where we begin does not predict where we will end. Buckle your seat belts and prepare yourselves for a ride so wild that no amusement park could insure it. “

If we click on the map (and we can’t control ourselves) we get data such as this on Florida (we have edited this down to just the main data not all the elected officials etc since it has lots of detail):

Leans Republican….Does everyone have the same spine-tingling fear when they see all the recent polls showing the Sunshine State tied? Please God, not 2000 all over again! It’s very possible, but our current guess is that this is Bush’s low water mark, and that only if Kerry is winning the White House handily does he get Florida, too. It may be Jeb to the rescue for his big brother once again.

Another swing state, Michigan:

Leans Democratic ….Here’s another barnburner. Early polls have shown this huge Midwestern state to be close, and in 2000, Gore managed to win by only 217,000 votes out of well over 4 million cast. Should Bush pull out of his tailspin and soar in the fall, Michigan will be in contention. But the state fairly consistently leans Democratic, and the Democrats control the governorship and both U.S. Senate seats. It will be hard for Bush to wrest this prize from the Kerry column.

The great thing about the analyses of Sabato and his staff is how they step back and assess from a distance, rather than from a partisan cheerleading session, so you feel you’re getting data that’s as objective as possible.

Visit it and click on the states…and you won’t want to stop…as you read the Crystal Ball’s state-by-state political status reports.

Posted by Joe Gandelman at June 17, 2004 03:19 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Good analysis. Thats pretty much how I see it. I think Bush will either pull it together and win comfortably, or he will lose in a nail biter.

Posted by: Mark Buehner at June 17, 2004 04:05 PM

Florida I think you can rest assured that conservative leaning Panhandle will not stay home this go around, even if the state is called early for the other guy.
New Jersey Recent polling shows this once Democratic lock of a state might be in play. Not that Bush has a chance but Kerry may have to spend money and time in Jersey rather than somewhere else and that can’t help. Intersting the Sabato thing doesn’t mention that.
CAlifornia Recent polling shows Bush behind by a single point in CA. Must be an inaccurate poll to be so ignored by Sabato. Anyway, if the poll has any legitimacy Kerry will have to spend time and money to assure California, a state that should be a give-me for the Democrats.

Posted by: ruprecht at June 17, 2004 04:10 PM

seems we’re very close to a 269-269 tie. all that needs to happen in Sabato’s secnario is that WV goes to bush.

Posted by: chris at June 17, 2004 06:39 PM

New Jersey Recent polling shows this once Democratic lock of a state might be in play. Not that Bush has a chance but Kerry may have to spend money and time in Jersey rather than somewhere else and that can’t help. Intersting the Sabato thing doesn’t mention that.

Doesn’t mention it because no one serious, including our own pollsters, think New Jersey” is “in play.”

As far as the “conservative” panhandle of Florida all the democgraphics of Florida have been changing and not going our way. The panhandle isn’t that strong.

Posted by: JJ at June 17, 2004 07:41 PM

Over a 2-1 margin seems to make the 10 counties in the western panhandle Bush country. I may be wrong but I can’t possibly see Kerry winning LA., AK, VA., OHIO, VA., CO., Missouri, FL., nor NC., even should Edwards be on the ticket.
Democrat Bob Beckel himself has said that Bush lost 15,000 votes in the western panhandel of FL. because of an early call. Michigan and PA. are the last two componets of the trifecta that include FL.
Bush wins if he wins that trifecta. Then I could always be incorrect.
The state that I have my eyes on is CA. Can Arnold swing California to the GOP? This may sound silly, but what will Reagan’s death so close to an election do? Could a Bush victory be truly the last for the Gipper? Maybe that question is a mere thought.
I’ll put the Reagan thought to bed. A GOP win in CA, would nonetheless be huge. Is Arnold up to it and can he help pull it off? He is moderate at the very most. He carried all but 7 counties during the recall. It will take loyalty and personal appeal for the former actor to deliever. Lots of it. It still could swing for the GOP. I see Kerry winning handily or losing handily. I simply don’t see it being close.
I personally see the Iraq conflict as the one and huge factor. The economy will play a role only if it takes a dive in the next 100 plus days. And I could be drastically incorrect.

Posted by: Eugene at June 18, 2004 02:45 AM

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again…

This election will be decided by events, not campaigns.

The economy wont be a factor in November, because too many people are noticing that we’re past the recovery stage and well into the job creation stage.
(And don’t believe the hype about all the jobs being crappy.)

No, this will come down to a foreign affairs issue.

If Iraq is a mess in November, Bush is screwed.

If Iraq is at least semi-functional, even if there are still security issues, Kerry is screwed.

Plus of course, there is the unknown factor…
Other events that may come up between now and then and which will affect the election is ways we can’t predict because we don’t yet know what they are.

Posted by: eric at June 18, 2004 09:16 AM

I don’t think Bush will win California or New Jersey. What I do think is that Kerry will have to play defense (time and money) in two states that he should be able to ignore.

I think the report that started this thread takes that too lightly. Its a money game and currently if I remember correctly Bush has a massive warchest to fight with. If he can force Kerry to spend time and money shoring up solid Democrat states he is forcing Kerry away from the battleground states.

I also agree with Eric to some extent on his last post, but with a caveat. When Iraq was a mess last month Bush’s poll numbers went up. There is a rally around the flag affect that takes place at times. I’m not so certain Bush is screwed if Iraq tanks. Especially since Kerry’s has blurred the line on his own plans for Iraq. Having said that I would prefer a nice peaceful Iraq in November.

Posted by: ruprecht at June 18, 2004 12:19 PM

I to agree about the rally around the flag affect. And the unknown factor. I actually don’t believe CA. and NJ. will swing GOP.
I wonder if there are those that would comment on a Bush/ McCain ticket. Could this be more favorable than Bush/Cheny? Especially if Iraq was not yet stable.
Would such a ticket give McCain a good shot at the 2008 nomination? Or would age factor in?

Posted by: Eugene at June 18, 2004 11:29 PM

Bush is holding all the cards come November: improving economy, Iraqi self-rule, and greater wartime leadership credibility. Anyone thinking Kerry has a shot has a vested interest in making this election look more interesting than it will be.

Posted by: JB at June 19, 2004 11:39 AM

Eugene- I posted about this very thing in the original “What If” thread, so I won’t repeat it all here but I think a Bush-McCain ticket would devastate the people who believe in supporting the troops but not the war. And they are legion, at least where I live.

I’ve come to this view by way of the observation that just about everyone I know who faithfully believes in Anyone-But-Bush is also, for reasons I explain in the other post, absolutely ga-ga about McCain. The pairing of the two would be too much for them to reconcile ideologically.

Others doubtless would oppose such a ticket for different reasons. Many Republicans don’t like him, apparently. And I wouldn’t care to see the combination myself, though I’d take that over Kerry and whomever. BTW I‘m not a member of either party but I do vote.

I’d love to see Giuliani on the Republican ticket. He’s a true leader. Actually I’d love to see him anywhere, how about Ambassador to the UN? Better yet, Secretary of State. If you need somebody to knock heads and clean house, he’s the man.

Posted by: marymcl at June 20, 2004 06:28 PM

Iraq will becomes more stable by the election. However, Iraqis fighting for their own security will be positive news but boths sides will see differently.

Iran grabbed 3 British ships today, begging to be an issue by November. An unofficial blockade exists to hamper their nulear weapons plans. Iran will kick non-cooperation with the UN into high gear.

N. Korea will become more belligerent by the election. Their rhetoric will become troublesome as they announce exactly how many nukes they have. This will be used to bash Bush.

The Sudan crisis will be interesting. The press will ignore it as comparisons to Rwanda will cause reflections on the Clinton administrations failures there and in Somalia. When the death toll approaches one million the UN and NATO will be put on the spot.

Then there are the Saudis, Osama, etc.

It is probably safe to say that good news will have little effect at first and will take time to sink in. Bad news on the other hand will show immediate results.

Still the DOW will be over 11,000 by November, and the voters who watch this will lean in to see Bush return to the White House.

Posted by: Agrippa at June 21, 2004 08:03 AM

I don’t think my state of PA will ‘go Bush’, period. The poor guy has been here umpteen times, and the locals still joke about the buses bringing the Ohioans across the border for rallies throughout the state. Way too many ‘suburban’, urban and exurban mothers worried about their sons here, and that fact is transferring to the fathers. The ‘quiet’ Bush voters here will share, when pressed, that they have been deeply disappointed and focus on the war, the ‘prescription plan,’ and the economy. Despite what someone posted previously, the job ‘return’ is ‘crappy’ jobs. The local newspapers have done a good job, no pun intended, on educating readers on exactly what new jobs are being created (and most of those newspapers lean GOP). It’s pretty hard to hide when all you have to do is check the classifieds and visit Monster. Lesser mentioned, though mentioned it is, is the Bush campaign’s targeting of 1600 PA churches. Made a lot of folks ‘uncomfortable.’ PA’s GOP strength is its moderates, and they are getting harder and harder to fool.

Posted by: Indie2004 at June 21, 2004 01:13 PM

Bush is holding all his cards, and fate could easily turn toward him. Even when things weren’t going so well in Iraq, he wasn’t tanking. Kerry should have been ahead 15 points, but he wasn’t.

They’ve played the class warfare card, it hasn’t fazed anyone.

They’re playing the ‘misery’ card. It can only work for so long.

They’ve already played the race card in Missouri.

They haven’t played a few other cards yet: the ‘Scare the Seniors Card’ among others. Just hope they don’t play the ‘Pass the Torricelli’ card, or we could have a crap heap of biblical proportions.

On the other hand

We have only just begun the fight on the economic front. I’m hoping we see this through.

The Iraq issue could die off in July, getting another monkey off of Bush’s back, or even turn toward him and boost him.

And of course, there’s plenty of other things Bush could bring up that are quite fair and rational…

But too many things can happen in 160+ days to be certain. Let’s just hope no one brings up a sex scandal, and I’ve already heard rumors of something along those lines toward Bush (yes, Bush).

Posted by: Charles Hammond Jr. at June 22, 2004 10:24 PM