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2004 US Presidential Election
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June 17, 2004
Bush | Keeping an Eye on Bush's Market Value

Polls aren’t the only way to election watch. Markets are quickly becoming viable ways to predict real events. Take a look at Intrade for an example. Here’s a quick link to Bush’s reelection chances.



Posted by Mike Van Winkle at June 17, 2004 10:27 AM | TrackBack
Comments

So Bush is trading in the high 50’s with Kerry trading in the high 90’s.

Yay Kerry?

I don’t think so. Bush trades at 3x the volume that Kerry does.

Posted by: Hmm... at June 17, 2004 10:54 AM

That’s 90s for Kerry to be the Democratic nominee, not President. Apples and oranges.

Posted by: yk at June 17, 2004 11:37 AM

This reminds me of the U of Iowa Elections Futures Market, which is supposedly an accurate predictor of election results.

The 2004 presidential election market: linkage

ok, ep2k

Posted by: elvispresley2k at June 17, 2004 11:45 AM

yk… You’re right. I totally missed that. I guess they can’t really start trading Kerry as presidential candidate until he finally accepts the nomination.

Posted by: Hmm... at June 18, 2004 09:18 AM

I have been trading the Intrade (or Tradesports, same thing) market for over a year now. I started with the Saddam contracts, and then moved on to other current/event political contracts. I can tell you from personal experience that these markets are unbelievably accurate at predicting swings in sentiment. Of course they are not perfect (they predicted Howard Dean as the likely winner of Iowa) but they work much more efficiently then the media, polls or public opinion (after Iowa, the market predicted the total collapse of Dean faster then anyone else) I highly recommed any such market (Iowa included) as a primary source of info.

Posted by: Omid at June 21, 2004 12:09 AM

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