I wouldn’t worry just yet.

Dick Morris is actually a very astute political analyst, despite the ragging he often gets.

However, he is analyzing CURRENT events.

GWB can definitely lose the election. However, he has not done so YET, and what is likely to happen will be greatly influenced by what happens in Falluja for the rest of the month and what happens after the power turnover.

The biggest mistake GWB can make however, is to not trumpet the GOOD news.

He should take some of his ad money and spend it on educating people about how well things are going in most of Iraq, how much we’ve done, how far we’ve come.

Posted by: eric at April 20, 2004 08:45 AM

Is this the same Dick Morris who was saying a month ago that Bush was on his way to a landslide victory?

Morris is very astute, but I believe he’s gotten hung up on self-promotion through catchy headlines. And we all know how the NY Post loves catchy headlines.

Posted by: kh at April 20, 2004 09:48 AM

Whatever my opinion of Morris as a human being (low) and a political thinker (very low), I gotta admit he’s an effective political strategist. I mean, he got an oversexed Governor of Arkansas elected President, for chrissakes!

So I hope the Bush campaign is paying some attention to what Morris has to say, and not dismissing him out of hand.

Posted by: Brambles at April 20, 2004 10:29 AM

After watching Bush’s press conference I don’t see how anyone could deny in he is in trouble.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 20, 2004 10:48 AM

What editing version of the press conference did you watch? read the transcript instead. Then you will get the whole story, not the clipped, made to look stupid one.

Posted by: Al-Lat at April 20, 2004 11:16 AM

If you look for the truth, you will see just how bad the media is leading your opinion. this so called “quagmire” in iraq is not, there is a war there, but it’s not a huge uprizing, rather, it’s iran doing everything possible to give a vote to Kerry.

Iran has interferred in Bosnia, Afghanistan, and now Iraq. They’re about to get their asses kicked, same with Syria. Just watch. When Bush lets the generals loose, you’ll see what marines do best.

Posted by: Al-Lat at April 20, 2004 11:22 AM

I watched the entire thing twice. Once to see what he would say and a second time to see if my initial impression was wrong. I guess it is clear why that was only his third formal press conference and it literally pained me to watch. After watching him try to explain himself, I doubt I would have the confidence to cast a vote for Bush for dog catcher.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 20, 2004 11:43 AM

Y’know, “Lincoln”, a statement like that only confirms that your mind was dead set against Bush long before the press conference began.

Those of us who actually consider and analyze what was asked, answered, and the context, were very pleased with the President’s performance.

Especially when compared to John “None of Your Business” Kerry’s answers to the few serious questions he gets.

Posted by: GDubya at April 20, 2004 02:56 PM

Actually my statemate is proof of an open mind. I was not dead set and actually voted for the man last election but I will call them as I see them and will not tow the company line just because I am affriad to admit I was wrong. Bush’s performance was a miserable failure. Maybe he should have brought Cheney with him for this event as well.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 20, 2004 04:25 PM

Ahhh, “miserable failure”, another line used pretty much only by Democrats and Bush haters.

Sorry, “Lincoln”, the only thing Republican about you, is the tag name you chose.

I am curious, all the same, how you can say Bush did a poor job in his press conference? Aftar all, Kerry hasn’t answered a serious question in the past half year, without resporting to an insult aimed at Bush, or telling the questioner some variant of “None of your business”, which of course he has also, specifically, used.

But Bush haters will walk in a thorny lane of their own making.

Posted by: GDubya at April 20, 2004 04:36 PM

Ended WMDs in Libya, Freed Afghanistan and gave them Democracy, Freed Iraqis and in process of stabalizing region and giving democracy,
created the ‘Patriot Act’ which has helped to eliminate terrorist cells in America, captured Saddam Hussein, Presided over the largest ever Coalition of Nations, gave power and enforcement to 17 UN resolutions…

Resurrected the Economy with 2 tax cuts..

I’m sorry what was that about again?

Lincoln wrote,
“Bush’s performance was a miserable failure.”

President Bush has done 100 times more than Clinton’s 8 years. Think about that when deciding where to place your vote. What has John Kerry ever accomplished?

Posted by: Jeff MacMillan at April 20, 2004 04:44 PM

Bush has done amazing things in a very short time. He has unitied the Sunnis and Shites…against us. He has raised Arab hatred of America to new heights and distanced us from most of our traditional allies. How can any self respecting Repubilcan tolerate the deficit he has saddled our children with? It takes a courage to admit when your own side is wrong…

Posted by: Lincoln at April 20, 2004 05:57 PM

Put a sock in it, “Lincoln.” You’re not fooling anyone.

Posted by: Evil Otto at April 20, 2004 10:42 PM

Lincoln does raise one (if only one) interesting point, though: the deficit. I gotta admit that it worries me no end. There’s something essentially screwy about a Republican President taking a balanced budget and building up these huge deficits. As a lifelong Republican, I have to ask: what’s the deal with the deficit?

Posted by: Guardian at April 21, 2004 04:55 AM

For what it’s worth, I don’t think Bush did very well in the press conf, either. He’s not a natural communicator, like Reagan was. I think it’s smart that he does very few of these press conferences.

But Lincoln, do you decide who to vote for on the basis of their press conferences? That’s got to be wrong, doesn’t it? I mean, you’ve got to look at a man’s record in government, and Bush has plenty of achievements to show — whereas Kerry has very few (and I’m being charitable here).

If you vote according to press conferences, you’re judging the book by its cover, not its content. That’s got to be wrong, doesn’t it?

Posted by: Brambles at April 21, 2004 04:59 AM

P.S.: I’m pretty worried about the deficit, too.

Posted by: Brambles at April 21, 2004 05:49 AM

Heck, Bush did GREAT in the press conference. He got bumbly when he was asked stupid gotcha-type questions. On purpose. Made the questioners look like harrassment. Heh. Bush is soooooo good! LOL

I’m not terribly worried about the deficit. It will come down with our expanding economy and tightening purse strings in Bush’s next four years. All bets are off with Kerry though.

Anyway, your kids can afford the deficit more than you…they’ll be richer, which is the American way. Mom and Dad do well, kids do even better, grandkids are friggin’ millionaires. :)

And what would you rather have for your kids, anyway? A deficit or terrorists in the mall?

Posted by: Syl at April 21, 2004 06:41 AM

I like your vision of a future where all our grandkids are millionaires. But if they’re ALL millionaires, then a million bucks wouldn’t have the same power, would it?

Are you saying the deficit is entirely (or even mainly) the result of our war on terror? If that’s the case, I’m a believer. But if somebody could point me to some statistical analysis of the deficit, it would help to know exactly where it’s coming from.

Posted by: Brambles at April 21, 2004 07:35 AM

The important number with the deficit is the ratio of debt to GDP. If debt goes up, and GDP goes up more there is no poblem. As I understand the debt to GDP ratio is average right now.

Posted by: Junkyard God at April 21, 2004 07:38 AM

One important point about that press conference:

The press clearly hated Bush, yet he gave them nothing they could use in their sound bite attacks.

I’d say he knew what he was doing, and handled himself well.

Posted by: GDubya at April 21, 2004 10:05 AM

I don’t know which polls Morris is using but the CNN/Gallup poll shows Bush 51% Kerry 46%. That’s a big difference.

Posted by: Elizabeth at April 21, 2004 10:35 AM

I am affraid he gave the press plenty and what was more harmful was the impression he gave the public. Not being able to admit a SINGLE MISTAKE is a terrible characteristic worthy of Al Gore. He appeared very evasive and not particularly confident. What happened to the straight talking sure of himself Bush? You want to talk policy? If I remember right, the person I voted for totally against nation building…let alone region building.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 21, 2004 11:36 AM

The question of whether Bush had made a mistake was asinine. Why not just ask outright, “Sir, will you please provide ammunition for your opponents to rake you over the coals using your own words?” “Sir, will you please douse yourself with gasoline so that we in the media can apply the torch?”

Gimme a break. The test of whether Bush is an idiot or not would have shown positive if he had responded to that question.

Posted by: Reid at April 21, 2004 02:00 PM

LOL

Lincoln is no Republican, and never was. He’s a dyed in the wool wookie, a Kerry plant, and a bad one at that. Coming on with the handle of “Lincoln” and then acting like he’s “having second thoughts.” Pleeeease.

What a joke!

Posted by: Matt at April 21, 2004 02:19 PM

Actually, you are incorrect. Just like in a job interview, it is best to be prepared to admit some type of shortcoming. “I am too loyal…I work too hard…etc.” are classic examples of a positive flaw. By stonewalling, or some might say bumbling, instead of answering the question he reallly looked immature instead of honest. Studies prove my point, the public is less harsh when people admit some type of failure. When Bush was asked if he owed the nation an apology like Clarke offered he again failed the test. Rather than ignore the question why didn’t he say ” There is no way I could have prevented 911 but it occured on my watch and I as sorry it happened. The buck stops here!”

Posted by: Lincoln at April 21, 2004 02:22 PM

Here is the opinion of not necessarily the final arbiter, but certainly a typical voter, my 73-year old mother (who, incidentally, has a crush on Rumsfeld), when asked what she thought of Bush’s performance at the press conference:

“I think there is something really wrong with him. You know, mentally. It’s really scary.”

For what its worth.

Posted by: Todd at April 21, 2004 04:06 PM

Lincoln:

This isn’t a job interview. What you are asking for is style, not substance, and is as meaningless as any interview question. I’ve given job interviews; when someone answers a question in the ways you provide I try to be polite, but my first thought is “bullshit.”

Kind of like I think about your claims to have voted for Bush.

Posted by: Evil Otto at April 21, 2004 04:08 PM

Evil Otto

Is the deficit issue substrance or style? Bush promised to not engage in “nation building,” did he keep his promise? When you gave interviews wouldn’t my answers be superior to totally avoiding the question? How important is style in Presidental election (on a scale of 1 to 10)? Todd had the best post on the topic and my 70+ year old mother had a similar comment. “Is he drinking again?”

Posted by: Lincoln at April 21, 2004 04:22 PM

It’s obvious that GWB needs some public speaking classes pronto!

But, when faced with the decision to re-elect a man who thus far does what he says he is planning to do versus a man who quotes Yeats as he sips tea to help his throat from too many ‘I hate that S.O.B. Bush speeches’, I’ll go with Bush.

Posted by: Declan at April 21, 2004 05:19 PM

I voted for Bush in 2000. He presented himself as a fiscal conservative with no interest in “nation building.” Is that what we got? After hearing him say that he just “got out of the National Guard” to go to business school I have serious doubts about his patriotism. Kerry is a liberal and not my style but he did win three Purple Hearts, one Silver Star and a Bronze Medal. I wish I could say the same for the man I voted for.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 21, 2004 05:59 PM

But Kerry got out early to run for congress. Does Lincoln doubt his patriotism?

Posted by: chris at April 21, 2004 06:43 PM

And yet, “Lincoln”, his poll numbers have gone up. Eat your heart out, dude.

BTW, what you’re selling… nobody’s buying.

Posted by: Reid at April 22, 2004 12:14 AM

“Lincoln” talks like a Lefty,

whines like a Frenchman.

claims to be GOP shows none of the characteristics of a Republican.

Hmmmmmm….

Tall, seems dishonest but slick, lots of answers which blame Bush for everything, says he’ll vote different now than he claims he voted last time, thinks he looks like Lincoln…

Aha!

Folks, let me be the first to welcome our newest visitor, Senator John “Lincoln” Kerry!

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 10:58 AM

GDuya…does the deficit concern you? It used to be a Republican issue. Deficits matter…to the future of this great nation. To deny my proud Republican heritage is outrageous, when did our side become affraid of open discussion? I stand by my impression of Bush’s press conference…it was a disaster.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 11:26 AM

Sorry, “Lincoln”, you’re not fooling anybody with your ‘but I’m a Republican, really’ act.

“Proud Republican Heritage” sounds so pompous, maybe you’re really Al Gore. Whatever you are, we see through you, and are not going to play that game.

I can discuss any issue with anyone, but I insist on honesty as a prerequisite, so until you drop the phony mask, no one here is likely to give you even the time of day.

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 12:17 PM

I am amazed by the peronsal attacks. To call me dishonest and not a Republican just because I was deeply troubled by Bush’s press conference is pitiful but it allows you to not answer my very serious questions. Is the current deficit acceptable and why did Bush not stick to his nation building pledge? We must stick together but we also must honestly evaluate the situation.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 12:40 PM

“Lincoln”, if you are what you claim, go back and read through your statements. Your claiming a whole lot more than what your last post said. That’s dishonest, on its face.

Like I said, drop the mask,and maybe we can discuss things. I talk with all sorts, Democrats, Republicans, Libertarians, Ecomilitants, you name it. But I won’t waste my time with someone claiming to be something, which every opinion they present proves to be false.

Maybe you like some Republicans, but that doesn’t make you one automatically. Maybe you like some things Republicans have done in the past, but that doesn’t make you one. After all, I like some Democrats, but I cannot abide their leadership or their platform. I like what some Democrats have done in the past, but that doesn’t mean I buy into what they’re doing now.

I am a Republican, because I support the President, I approve of and support the GOP Platform, and I obey Reagan’s 11th Commandment, which every real Republican remembers.

Fake Republicans don’t impress anybody.

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 01:00 PM

Still no deficit comment? And why is it ok to speak ill of me and break the 11th Commandment?

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 01:16 PM

Because, “Linc”, the 11th Commandment is about supporting the Republican Party, not tearing it down.

If you are a Republican, why don’t you say one thing about the tone and intent of the press’ attacks? The press showed their “I Support Kerry” bias in every breath, but you have no issues with them. You’re attacking Bush for not showing weakness, but not the press for their hypocrisy. That’s not what a Republican does, mister.

The deficit is large, yes. But how much of that came from rebuilding after 9/11, from new laws and actions taken to prevent the next wave of attacks [which worked, by the way - for some reason, no one in the media has the guts to note that while planned attacks are known to have been in the works, not one attack on US soil has happened since 9/11], from the war which was brought to our nation by men not only willing to kill innocents, but who planned to make innocents their targets? Your silence on these facts shows your nature, “Linc”.

You are not a Republican, and your claims do not fool anyone. I hope for your sake, that your work does not involve sales or marketing, because your powers of persuasion do not exist at all.

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 01:27 PM

Lincoln:

Look, NOBODY BELIEVES THAT YOU WERE OR ARE A REPUBLICAN. Do you get that? I’ve read your posts here, and you don’t show the slightest comprehension of issues from the right side of the American political spectrum.

Stop lying and I might be bothered to actually discuss something with you. Otherwise, eat me. I’ve got better things to do with my time.

Posted by: Evil Otto at April 22, 2004 02:52 PM

And let me say here, that as a real Democrat, I don’t want you in my party either!

I am already upset enough, with that Kerry guy trying to use my initials and my party, to sell America to the French and the UN! Ich bin ein Amerikaner, you poser.

Posted by: John F Kennedy at April 22, 2004 03:05 PM

The level of conversation of this thread has decended to that of a sports forum. “I’m a real fan and you’re not…etc” As a life long Republican I can say I have never been treated like this by fellow Republicans. I bring up the deficit and I get personal attacks. Bush sold himself as having no interest in “nation building” and look where we are now. I know this hurts me as a Republican and I only seek other Republicans opinions on these critlcal issues.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 03:22 PM

You’re 192 days too early, “Linc”, for Halloween (when people pretend to be what they are not) is a long way off.

Of course, the kids seem to do a better job acting in character, than you are, trying to pass yourself off as a Republican.

Let’s have some fun, then. You claim you are a Republican, but you say you wouldn’t vote for Bush for “dog-catcher”. So, what exactly qualifies your candidate? And why, if you will not support the President, the War on terror, or the Tax Cuts, do you think we should consider you Republican?

I warn you, if you won’t answer honestly this time, we will only heckle you worse. We know what you are, but I’m curious to see just how bad an actor you are.

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 04:00 PM

Lincoln:

Saying that you are a “life-long” Republican does not make us believe it. Repeating that you are a Republican over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over and over again makes us even less likely to believe you.

And whining about “personal attacks” when we call you on your lies merely makes you a whiner.

Posted by: Evil Otto at April 22, 2004 04:38 PM

Clincoln critique of Bush:
He has raised Arab hatred of America to new heights and distanced us from most of our traditional allies.
Boohoohoo! Nobody likes us! Waaaa! I want to be popuar!

If this is a Republican talking, then my name is Michael Moore.

Posted by: Ivan Lenin at April 22, 2004 05:17 PM

I feel that Bush Adminstration bumbled the War of Terror. Ask the people on the ground in Afghanistan if the Iraq war stripped them of essential resources. It is very well documented. Has the Iraq war made us safer? I am affriad not. Has it fostered better relationship with our allies thus improving our chance to stop another 9-11? My vote was cast for a fiscal conservative who seemed intent on staying out of unnecessary conflicts. Bush’s spending should make all Republicans blush and I feel that his father had it right on Iraq. Topple Saddam and it becomes our mess to clean up and our tax dollars to spend. Iraq was a nasty country but basically secular and my bet is we will have another Iran before all of said and done. As a Republican I love my country above all other countries and I think that Iraq was not and essential step in the War on Terror. Bush played into Bin Laden’s hands and done exactly what Bin Laden wanted and expected. I support the tax cuts but the deficit is not acceptable and a disaster for our children.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 05:21 PM

I shall taunt you a Second Time (hat tip to Monty):

So, what exactly qualifies your candidate?

And why, if you will not support the President, the War on terror, or the Tax Cuts, do you think we should consider you Republican?

You answered neither question, but returned to your whine.

You’re not Republican, “Linc”, you’re French!

Posted by: GDubya at April 22, 2004 06:04 PM

I answered your questions on the tax cuts and explained my reservations on Bush’s approach on the War on Terror. You have yet to address the deficit or whether the War in Iraq was a justified step in the war on terror. You ask …”do you think we should consider you Republican?” and my answer is I don’t care what you think. I am a Republican and proud of it! It seems that your definition of a Republician is nothing more than going along with the current administration no matter what the policies might be. Answer a simple question for me, do Republicans typically care about deficits? To anyone who reads this it is clear that you are affraid to answer this question.

Posted by: Lincoln at April 22, 2004 06:27 PM

Lincoln:

Blah blah blah “I am so a Republican” blah blah blah blah “But what about the deficit?” blah blah blah blah blah “God, I’m so Republican that other Republicans walk up to me on the street and say ‘Damn, you’re Republican.’ blah blah “You’re being mean!” blah blah blah blah “I just want to talk about the issues!” blah “Did I mention I was a Republican?”

Say one thing about Lincoln, he’s got John Kerry’s shtick down pat.

Posted by: Evil Otto at April 22, 2004 07:31 PM

Give me a break. These posts are becoming increasingly more rediculous. Evil Otto/Gdubya, I usually appreciate your posts when you use substance and talk about your ideas, but since when do you get to make the final call on who is a republican and who isn’t? There are different kinds of republicans and it is obvious that Lincoln is a lot closer to the middle than you two are. So what? You both should have stopped after making your original points that you didn’t think Lincoln was or ever has been a republican, that was thought provoking and did serve to undermine Lincoln’s credibility. But by continuing to try and force Lincoln to admit that he is not a republican (which evidently has been fruitless and a waste of time) and by resorting to name calling and silly bantering, you are just irritating everyone and undermining your own credibility.
Let Lincoln claim what he wants, get back to the issues, make your own points and stop wasting your own and everybody elses time.

Posted by: Montana Man at April 25, 2004 09:41 PM

Montana man, you may note that I have not bothered to respond to “Linc” in several days, even after he (falsely) claimed that he answered my questions.

So far as I am concerned, the matter is closed, and I at least have moved on to better things.

Posted by: GDubya at April 26, 2004 12:13 PM