If this were late October, this would mean something to me. It isn’t. The election will turn on the domestic economy and Iraq, with a wild card of terrorist strikes.

IMHO, of course.

MG

Posted by: MG at April 15, 2004 08:17 PM

Normally, I would agree. This election is different because the Dems have made it so by their early selection process and their unrelenting attack on foreign policy in a time of war. These trends cannot be dismissed. I think that between April and November, you’re going to see a hardening of positions, and as more states tilt GOP, watch for the cascade. Jobs, yes. Security, definitely yes.

Posted by: Helen at April 15, 2004 11:00 PM

What these polls show us is that over $50 million of negative campaigning from the GOP has barely made a dent.

Kerry spent $10 million over the same (March 4 - April 26) period.

Posted by: VoR at April 16, 2004 08:49 AM

huh? negative adds? how so?

The simple facts of the election will be whether Americans are smart enough to realize America must remain a dominant world power, or succumb to appeasement, and loss of world power, which will include commerce, trade, industry, which keeps the economy rolling. Anyone who thinks America can become a closed society, supporting itself from within is delusional. Kerry is for that, and high taxes to support unrealistic dreams.
Bush is for world peace and stability, because trade blossoms in a stable world, which is good for all economies, which in turn is good for the American economy. Kerry has shown his true colors, and the type of people he supports, and who support him.
I know one thing that many of my colleges share, is that my support for a Democrat president will be made heard by closing my business, and taking it elsewhere.

Posted by: Companyman at April 16, 2004 10:20 AM

“…over $50 million of negative campaigning from the GOP….”

Any honest description of the JK Flip-flop is going to be “negative.”

Posted by: Gary and the Samoyeds at April 16, 2004 11:03 AM

What the polls also show is the weakening of the liberal iron grip on public opinion. Lo and behold, we can actually make up our own minds.

so inspite of the nattering nabobs of negativity blah blahing on the network news all night long, the America people are assessing, thinking, deciding for themselves.

it must suck to be Dan Rather right about now.

Posted by: skip at April 16, 2004 11:24 AM

“Negative”, huh?

Considering how many of those ads simply took John Kerry’s own statements and positions, that’s interesting.

If the ads are “negative” and should be rejected, then John Kerry is “negative” and should be rejected, by the same logic.

Posted by: GDubya at April 16, 2004 01:18 PM

Just the other day, john F-ing kerry was saying he’s be running to the UN begging for help in this “quagmire” he called Iraq.

In Bush’s statement to the press, he revealed that he already HAD the UN involved in the Iraqi elections strategy

It Just goes to show kerry hasn’t a clue whats going on anywhere.
What does he have left? It seems kerry doesn’t really have any platform or strategy, except “vote for me because I hate Bush too!”

Posted by: Al-Lat at April 16, 2004 04:35 PM

Every Republicans wet dream. I can’y wait to see their faces when Bush gets bounced in all these states and parts of the south.

Posted by: Patriot at April 16, 2004 09:53 PM

Patriot,

You obviously cannot read. Just check the real world news state-by-state sometime, or is that too much work for you.

The economic news is GOOD. The Polls are good for Bush and the Republicans also. The ONLY Polls that I have seen showing Kerry ahead have had a significant Liberal Democratic bias in the last 4 elections.

I will trust the American people. Most of the News Media cannot stand the fact that they are being ignored by Americans. Ha!

Posted by: leaddog2 at April 17, 2004 12:20 AM

“The polls are good for Bush…”

Check Fox news. Latest poll: Bush 43%, Kerry 44%.

With the daily casualties in Iraq which way do you think the polls will go?

Truth

Posted by: Truth at April 18, 2004 11:23 AM

..read this and tell me what jumps out at you .
http://www.newsobserver.com/edwards/coverage/story/3522417p-3125558c.html

Posted by: Rob..NC at April 18, 2004 03:43 PM

a poll with 444 respondants isnt very comprehensive.

Posted by: Gabriel at April 18, 2004 05:55 PM

PS, registered voters isn’t as reliable as likley voters.

Posted by: Gabriel at April 18, 2004 05:56 PM

YAWWNNNN. None of this matters. The Election is in November. There is a lot of politicing to be done between now and then. Kerry is using the medis to of set the Dollar gap. That works up to a point. We will reach that point about early October. That is when the WMD will be found, OBL will get scragged and anything else that Bush feels he needs. Politics ain’t bean bag. Bush could recover ground in the polls by simply invading Syria or Iran. Nothing the left can do to stop him.
Pat, I live in the South and I can’t fand ANYONE that is planning on voting for Ketchup, as we call him down here. Hell will freeze over before a southerner votes for a shitbag from Boston. Wait and see.

Posted by: ableiter at April 18, 2004 06:30 PM

Accepting for a start that a candidate can’t be everything to everyone, and looking at the candidates’ image and history, I think it’s reasonable to say that Bush is counting on the South, the Plains, most of the Southwest, and the traditional GOP strongholds, and hoping to get help in Pa, NJ, and maybe Iowa, to keep Fla. Kerry is depending on the Northeast, California and the West Coast, and as much of the Midwest as he can hold. Bush is not expected to get much that he did not carry in 2000, nor is Kerry expected to get much that Gore did not take in 2000.

(continued)

Posted by: GDubya at April 18, 2004 10:35 PM

Counting Kerry’s image, the normal Democratic strong states, and the polls, it would reasonable to say Kerry can expect to take the following states: Cal, Con, DC, Del, Haw, Ill, Iowa, Maine, Mary, Mass, Mich, Minn, NMex, NY, Ore, RI, Ver, and Wash. That gives him 210 EV, so he needs to find 60 more.

Kerry’s leading right now in Fla, and he’s tied in WV. Even if he takes both, that’s only another 32 EV. Nobody seems able to explain how and where Kerry would take the remaining 28 EV he would need, even if all of the above conditions continued to work in his favor. Kerry is losing in every other state poll, and it’s ludicrous to think Bush hasn’t done his math.

Although I’m beginning to wonder who in the Kerry camp has done theirs…

Posted by: GDubya at April 18, 2004 10:47 PM

Ableiter wrote: “Bush could recover ground in the polls by simply invading Syria or Iran.”

Yep and instead of the 100 US casualties per month we would get a 1000 body bags a month.

That would greatly help his reelection surely.

I would laugh if it were not so sad. It is because mediocre little Bush listened to this kind of crazy advice from the like of Rumfeld and Cheney that we are in such a mess.

Ableiter, keep up the good work and Kerry is sure to enter the White House.

Truth

Posted by: Truth at April 19, 2004 09:34 AM

Yeah, sure, Truth, 1000 body bags a month. That’s more than we got in total from Afghanistan AND Iraq, for over two years.

At the current friend/foe death ratio witnessed in Fallujah and around, which is in the 50:1 range in our favor (that is, “us” without you and Ted Kennedy), it seems the Syrian army won’t last more than a couple of months…

Maybe the “Arab street” will rise in anger and kill us all? Like it did when we invaded Afghanistan? Or when we bombed through the Ramadan? Or when we got to Baghdad in 20 days? Or when Israel nabbed Sheikh al-Wheel-chair? Or Rantisi?

Posted by: Rummy at April 19, 2004 12:57 PM

Quick look about you! Try to find something that was made in Syria. Can’t do it, can ya?

and why, because these people have no idea how to survive in the modern world. They have nothing to offer and the only reason people refer to the Arab street is to be PC. What “Arab street” means is “out of work Arab men with AKs and nothing productive to do!”

So Syria needs to be brought up to date. Bashar el Asad needs to start using his head.

Case in point: today it was reported that a chemical weapon attack on our Embassy in Jordan was disrupted. And who were the people trying to kill Jordanians? Palestinians that crossed to Jordan from, guess where, Syria!

Syria, and Iran, they need to be dealt with. They are praying for an Al-Kerry victory because they know it’ll be back to the US begging for peace.

Posted by: skip at April 19, 2004 01:16 PM

Yep Rummy the US army is great at destroying but not so good at winning hearts and minds of the people they are supposed to have liberated.

I know this CP site is run and inhabited mostly by warmongers who need to hate to feel alive but their policy is sheer madness.

When will they understand that colonialism can no longer work in this 21st century.

Truth

Posted by: Truth at April 19, 2004 03:28 PM

As I stated elsewhere what this person Truth wants is the end to the civilization that supports him.

Seems clear to me.

Did you read the posting about infidels must die, there truth? or is warmongering on the part of our enemies not part of your “vision”?

Posted by: skip at April 19, 2004 06:09 PM

“I would laugh if it were not so sad. It is because mediocre little Bush listened to this kind of crazy advice from the like of Rumfeld and Cheney that we are in such a mess.”

I would like to respond to such illogic. but I can’t get past someone going by the name of “Truth” while arguing with nothing more than emotion.

Posted by: RJT at April 19, 2004 06:22 PM

heh, gotcha…

Posted by: BallsDeep at April 19, 2004 08:43 PM

We’ll see how this plays out once people get a load of the annual inflation rate as of, say, September ‘04.

Posted by: lfg at April 19, 2004 10:07 PM

From CNN and Gallup Polls

WASHINGTON (CNN) — President Bush increased his lead over Sen. John Kerry in a CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll released Monday, but fewer than half of the respondents said they approved of the way Bush is handling of the war in Iraq.

Bush led Kerry, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 51 percent to 46 percent in the survey of likely voters, which was conducted Friday through Sunday. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults, including a subsample of 767 respondents deemed most likely to vote in November.

Posted by: leaddog2 at April 19, 2004 11:48 PM

>The election will turn on the domestic economy >and Iraq, with a wild card of terrorist strikes.

It is precisely this type of “hoping for a terror attack” that will get the Dems defeated in a landslide. I voted for Al Gore in 2000…but I will never vote for the Dems again because of the disgraceful way they and their sheep have politicized this war (what war? they would say).

Earth to Liberals: Take it from a recent Gore voter…another terror attack on American civilians will mean another regime change in the Middle East…not in Washington. If you honestly think that Iran will go unbombed for 5 hours after even a car bomb explodes in the USA...you were raised on another planet.

Just because Spain got all “hand-wringy-dingy” after the Madrid bombings…resulting in no setback for a terrorist regime…doesn’t mean that Damascaus and Tehran would be keeping their regimes for very many hours after a similar or much smaller attack on American civilians.

Meanwhile, Kerry’s insistent talk about there being no war and that this needs to be a “police action” would all look very bad even after one car bomb in America. Americans are “Jacksonian” in nature. You don’t mess with them (except with Vietnam and then only “in theatre” while Americans back home led sexual and women’s revolutions). We are being messed with now. Watch the polls lean more toward Bush as our Marines get shot at.

Posted by: Jennifer Peterson at April 19, 2004 11:55 PM

Truth,

You do not live in any reality that I want to be a part of.

Elections are 6 months away but as of NOW in ABC and CNN/USATODA/Gallup Polls:

Bush was up 48-43 over Kerry among registered voters, with Nader at 6 percent in the ABC-Post poll. In the CNN-USA Today-Gallup poll, Bush was ahead 50-44 among likely voters, with Nader at 4 percent.

Over the past few weeks, Bush has wiped out Kerry’s advantage on all domestic issues except health care insurance, where Kerry still holds a small lead, the ABC-Post poll found. Bush still holds a double-digit lead over Kerry on the war in Iraq and fighting terrorism.

Bush and Kerry are now even on who people would trust to handle the economy, at 47 percent apiece. In early March, Kerry had a 12-point lead on that issue.

Four in five in the ABC-Post poll said Bush takes a position and sticks to it. Half that many said the same about Kerry. More said Bush was honest and trustworthy, 55 percent, than said that about Kerry, 49 percent.

Posted by: leaddog2 at April 20, 2004 12:04 AM

>Bush is not expected to get much that he did not >carry in 2000

As a member of Democrats for Bush in California…I can assure you that Arnold and the rest of us patriotic Democrats will make sure that Bush gets all of California’s electoral votes.

Our strategy: Debates in colleges and high schools where elitist liberal fools will go up against the real liberal intellegentsia. We’re the ones who are proud about America’s democratization of the world…regardless of whether any given American president was a Democrat or Republican. The Far Left has set the Democrats up for a landslide defeat in 2004. I switched from being a Democrat the moment the Senate agreed on a compromise Iraq War Resolution that took Syria and Iran off the table. I knew at that moment that the current problems would result from that…and that this meant that the Democrats were lethal to the health of American soldiers. I wanted no part of that. The Dems must go down in 2004 and lose the Senate to a 61:39 split to boot.

Posted by: Jennifer Peterson at April 20, 2004 12:06 AM

>I know this CP site is run and inhabited mostly by >warmongers who need to hate to feel alive but >their policy is sheer madness.

Not really. The CP site is inhabited by people who actually read the CP site. And understand that we are, in fact, in a war. The war will not be over until Al Jazeera feels that its viewers don’t want to hear the garbage now being broadcasted…or until one of them tries something really stupid in the form of WMD against Americans.

>When will they understand that colonialism can no >longer work in this 21st century.

This proves that you don’t read the CP site. The occupation was due to end in about 70 days. Iraqis were supposed to be on their feet and ready to defend their own liberty by then. There is no colonialism in asking that a population guard their own freedom against foreign powers like Syria and Iran. And the Iraqis will do that. It will be a matter of getting good Iraqi generals, however. Someone who would have put the cowards before a firing squad who pulled a new Iraqi battalion out of the fighting on Easter weekend.

And soon we will have Iranians and Syrians fighting against their dictators to obtain freedom. At least the Iranians will do so.

Posted by: Jennifer Peterson at April 20, 2004 12:26 AM

I’m 70 years old, and this is the most thieving, politically and financially corrupt administration I have ever seen. I can’t think of a single issue that they have weighed in on the correct side of when it comes to looking out for the interests of the majority of Americans. I will definitely vote in the ‘anybody but Bush/Cheney’ column this November, and will work just as hard as I can to un-seat anybody in congress that supports them.

Posted by: bob at April 27, 2004 10:55 PM

How absolutely stupid do you have to be to miss the significance of a president who has spent all our money, and now is on a record-setting borrowing binge and signing the American taxpayer’s name to all the loans? Forget the idea of a liberal being tax and spend. Clinton shrunk the government and balanced the budget. Bush is a BORROW and spend thief, who can’t open his mouth without lying. You rightwing suckers who put these pillagers in the white house are the most gullible close-minded idiots our culture has ever produced.

Posted by: Bill at April 29, 2004 11:59 AM

How absolutely stupid do you have to be to miss the significance of a president who has spent all our money, and now is on a record-setting borrowing binge and signing the American taxpayer’s name to all the loans? Forget the idea of a liberal being tax and spend. Clinton shrunk the government and balanced the budget. Bush is a BORROW and spend thief, who can’t open his mouth without lying. You rightwing suckers who put these pillagers in the white house are the most gullible close-minded idiots our culture has ever produced.

Posted by: Bill at April 29, 2004 11:59 AM