The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
March 17, 2004
| Bush Has A Friend In Pennsylvania

President Bush has a friend in Pennsylvania and his name is Ralph Nader. This just came out of Quinnipiac University’s Polling Institute:

Pennsylvania is shaping up once again as a critical state in the Presidential race as voters give 44 percent to President George W. Bush, 40 percent to Democratic challenger John Kerry and 7 percent to independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a head-to-head race, without Nader, Kerry gets 45 percent to President Bush’s 44 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Pennsylvania carries 21 electoral votes.

Former Vice President Al Gore won Pennsylvania by a whisker in 2000 - a margin of about 200,000 votes out of more than 4.5 million cast. Nader took about 100,000 votes in Pennsylvania four years ago.

Sure, there’s a lot of time between now and election day, and early polls often don’t mean a lot. But in Pennsylvania, the early polling numbers mean this: the Democrats, including Kerry, will have to spend an awful lot of resources in the state to fight two opponents - merely to keep Pennsylvania in the blue column this year. That would likely mean fewer resources to fight in other battlegrounds like Florida.

(Cross-posted at Late Final.)



Posted by latefinal at March 17, 2004 07:46 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I hope he spends lots of money it`ll help the economy of PA.But the result is going to be the same.BUSH..04

Posted by: Rob..NC at March 17, 2004 08:50 AM

First of all, saying that you’re going to vote for Nader is a lot easier than actually going out and voting for the guy. Any pollster will tell you electability considerations play a (much) larger role come election day. Saying you’re going to vote for Nader won’t get Bush reelected. Actually voting for him just might…

Secondly, having an opponent on the left may be a hassle, but Kerry still has a few months to convince the much larger pool of moderate voters (including “old style” Republicans) he’s the country’s best bet for fiscal responsability. Remember Pat Buchanan’s “giant sucking sound” (of jobs moving away)? It has gotten only louder on GWB’s watch!

And how about the exploding twin deficits?(remember when is was the Republicans who once advocated “fiscal responsibility”?). When eventually investors will lose faith in this “borrow and spend” administration, the U.S. will go “Argentina”, with a vengeance!

Isn’t it ironic a Democrat is our best bet in defending these once conservative values and our economy?

Posted by: Voice of Reason at March 17, 2004 09:05 AM

When I see Kerry’s plan for balancing the budget we’ll talk. In fact when I see the first proposal he makes to cut a single dollar from a single program (aside from intel and defense which he has a storied history of chopping) I’ll stand up and take notice. But I wont hold my breath.

Posted by: mark buehner at March 17, 2004 10:05 AM

a little st. patrick’s day tidbit:

”For those of us who are fortunate to share an Irish ancestry, we take great pride in the contributions that Irish-Americans …” john kerry in the congressional record, march 18, 1986

if only he were irish…

Posted by: wafflestomper at March 17, 2004 10:36 AM

Nothing against the Jews, but if Kerry had
acknowledged his Jewish ancestry, he
would NOT currently be a Senator from
Massachusetts, or the Demo whirling
waffler running for President.

He claimed to be Irish and won Irish votes
by doing so. Does it surprise anyone that
there are a lot more Irish than Jews in
Boston and other areas of Massachusetts?

Posted by: leaddog2 at March 17, 2004 10:57 AM

1986? He was prolly tokin’ of a FatBoy at the time.

Posted by: Cap'n DOC at March 17, 2004 11:12 AM

What’s next, will Kerry claim he’s part American, too? That could help him in the middle of Pennsylvania. East to West, being part Italian, German, and Polish should also help his cause.

Voters in PA have never heard of the Big Ditch, so he can grab the fiscal responsibility vote.

Anyways, the whole point of the poll (any many, many polls to come) is not to impart any sort of news, it is to panic leftists into voting Kerry and double-punching any Nader votes that they see.

Posted by: pa farmboy at March 17, 2004 11:27 AM

“I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it” John Kerry

Posted by: mark buehner at March 17, 2004 12:40 PM

Which is worse” A slow recovering economy or a slow build up to another major terriost attack in America?
Put the wrong guy in office, cut defense, stomp on the Patriot Act, take away from Intel, and “boom”. Bet your lifes savings on that reality.
I personally would rather live a much lesser money hungry lifestyle. America has with all its technology combined with those who hate that technology can make a stand as in the past. Or it can simply ask for more $$ and allow the terroists to regroup and face far worse than 9/11.
That reality will be up to indivudal Americans and their interest in far less important things. Turn one cheek and you’ll get hit even harder on the other. The terriosts are rolling in laughter at those who believe otherwise.
Has Bush done the best job domestically? No! But he has taken the war to the terroists. Its a new era my friends. We’ve got to learn to deal with it. It won’t be a rose garden. Better now to accept than deny.
I’d love to have more income in my back pocket but like I said, “Its a new era”. We can either face reality or we can settle into a state of denial. Put the weapons of murder before us and we can clearly see them. Put the terriosts with the same and we are blind.

Posted by: Eugene at March 17, 2004 04:44 PM

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “First of all, saying that you’re going to vote for Nader is a lot easier than actually going out and voting for the guy. Any pollster will tell you electability considerations play a (much) larger role come election day. Saying you’re going to vote for Nader won’t get Bush reelected. Actually voting for him just might…”

Kinda like when the Clintons conspired with Ross Perot?

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “Secondly, having an opponent on the left may be a hassle, but Kerry still has a few months to convince the much larger pool of moderate voters (including “old style” Republicans) he’s the country’s best bet for fiscal responsability.”

Now that would be a magic act worthy of the finest casino in Vegas.

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “Remember Pat Buchanan’s “giant sucking sound” (of jobs moving away)? It has gotten only louder on GWB’s watch!”

Maybe he doesn’t have access to ‘smoke and mirrors’ to convince these corporations to pay employees in the US $3000 a month plus benefits and payroll taxes, instead of $30 a month to qualified Indian employees.

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “And how about the exploding twin deficits?”

Are you referring to the ‘twin towers’ ?

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “(remember when is was the Republicans who once advocated “fiscal responsibility”?). When eventually investors will lose faith in this “borrow and spend” administration, the U.S. will go “Argentina”, with a vengeance!”

Oh, I see…..investors would be confident if we allowed terrorism to thrive. These are dues we must pay for survival, which I feel is more important than ANY other issue at hand. If we don’t take care of it, all other issues are mute.

Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “Isn’t it ironic a Democrat is our best bet in defending these once conservative values and our economy?”

I don’t know what you’re smokin’ but it’s disabling your ability to think clearly. Nice try for promoting Kerry propaganda. Can you stoop any lower?

Posted by: Jeff B at March 18, 2004 12:35 AM

Jeff B: Self Proclaimed ‘voice of reason’ said, “And how about the exploding twin deficits?” Are you referring to the ‘twin towers’ ?

The term “twin deficits” is generally used to refer to the government deficit and the national trade deficit. Both are rising at an alarming rate under this administration, and both are issues Republicans used to care about.

One last remark about Nader: with Nader on the left and Bush moving further and further to the right (both fiscally and in his social policies), it appears Kerry will be left with (gasp) the middle ground of American politics. Interesting…

Posted by: VoR at March 18, 2004 03:45 AM

VoR Just how far right of center (or maybe even Centrist?) do you have to be to be labelled a Conservative? For a Left-Wing Nut (Reason requires a Standard, and you have your own, which is as good as NONE) like yourself, would anything to the right of Radical be about Right?

Posted by: Cap'n DOC at March 18, 2004 09:24 AM

This administration has misled the American people an amazing 237 times.

http://www.house.gov/reform/min/features/iraq_on_the_record/

It has misled us on the deficit and on the Medicare bill.

No amount of soulful gazing into a camera on GWB’s part will make that go away.

Posted by: VoR at March 18, 2004 05:39 PM

“Today, we are confronted by a regional power, Iraq, which has attacked a weaker state, Kuwait, for both territorial gain and control of an important resource. The crisis is even more threatening by virtue of the fact that Iraq has developed a chemical weapons capability, and is pursuing a nuclear weapons development program. And Saddam Hussein has demonstrated a willingness to use such weapons of mass destruction in the past, whether in his war against Iran or against his own Kurdish population.” John Kerry, US Senate, 1990

“If we go to war in the next few days, it will not be because our immediate vital interests are so threatened and we have no other choice. It is not because of nuclear, chemical, biological weapons when, after all, Saddam Hussein had all those abilities or was working toward them for years—even while we armed him and refused to hold him accountable for using some of them.” John Kerry, Jan. 1991

“Saddam Hussein has already used these weapons and has made it clear that he has the intent to continue to try, by virtue of his duplicity and secrecy, to continue to do so.” John Kerry, Feb. 1998

“If Democrats stand up and filibuster and oppose the [Medicare prescription drug] bill, I think frankly, Democrats will be blamed for failure to pass legislation that would finally begin to help our senior citizens.” Sen. Max Baucus (D-MT), November 2003

interesting you should talk about deception, vor. seems like you’re not giving a complete account of history… i think some other administration had made some remarks about the threat of iraq. why doesn’t your website include those remarks?

Posted by: wafflestomper at March 18, 2004 11:59 PM

Pa will never vote for bush. They aren’t Dumb.
They vote for repubs like Specter and we know he
isn’t a conservative.

Posted by: VF at March 20, 2004 07:38 AM

Why won’t they vote for Bush, he’s not a conservative either!

Posted by: billhedrick at March 21, 2004 05:48 PM

Will vote for GWB, never voted R in my life.
strange times

Posted by: voterinPA at March 22, 2004 12:23 AM

I voted bush in PA in 00. I am the critical swing vote demographic they talk about, and I will vote Kerry unfortunately. Howard Stern has some fine points regarding the religious right and our current admin.

Posted by: FrankD at March 23, 2004 12:54 PM

FrankD HOWARD STERN? LOL. Political ANALyst extraordinaire, ain’t he? Consider yourself SHOCKED. I know I am…

Posted by: Cap'n DOC at March 24, 2004 04:18 PM

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