The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
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February 18, 2004
| Poll Position: Who to Believe?

USA Today/Gallup Poll:

Kerry 55%
Bush 43%

UConn poll:

Dead heat.

Rasmussen Reports:

Bush 48%
Kerry 43%

Zogby has the most logical results:

Bush leads in red states, Kerry in blue.



Posted by Michele at February 18, 2004 07:20 PM | TrackBack
Comments

thanks for the three polls. I read the Rasmussen poll earlier and was telling others their figures were wrong, but apparently they read the other poll. Shows you not to trust polls. Jerks.

Posted by: Ricky Vandal at February 18, 2004 07:43 PM

It’s a little too early to get excited about polls. However, may I point out that if “Bush leads in red states, Kerry in blue.” then that means that Bush wins the election.

So we’ve basically got one poll saying Kerry is wildly ahead, one saying Kerry and Bush are even, and two saying Bush is ahead.

In other words, who the heck knows.

Posted by: Patrick Phillips at February 19, 2004 01:26 PM

Let’s all not forget that Mondale was beating the pants off of Ronald Reagan in the polls the summer prior to the ‘84 election.

We all may recall how that turned out.

Polls don’t mean shucks at this point.

Posted by: johnnymozart at February 19, 2004 02:15 PM

Polls don’t mean anything!!! Here’s a good post on why by Steven Den Beste.

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2004/01/Pollsandotherlies.shtml

Posted by: PayDay at February 19, 2004 03:22 PM

Has anyone seen a poll, that is aligned with Electorial college rules. Percentage Points on a state by state bases, then the according EC points.
75% of the overall people surveyed could be planning to vote for Kerry, but thats irrellevent.

Posted by: Redeck Texan at February 19, 2004 04:12 PM

The polls show one thing. Bush is in deep trouble. Mondale never got more than a point ahead of Reagan in ‘84, and that was only during the Democratic convention, when the idea of a female Vice President was still exiting.

ONE poll showed Hart ahead of Reagan right after he won the NH primary. Those could be explained away as the excitement of the moment.

Dukakis, on the other hand, lost his lead in the days before the Democratic convention.

Reagan was ahead of Carter at this time in the ‘80 race.

Kerry has been ahead of Bush in dozens of polls like these. While Bush could still win 49 states to 2, it’s not very likely.

Posted by: ericl at February 19, 2004 04:40 PM

And don’t forget, the red states are worth seven more electoral votes this time, thanks to reapportionment……

Posted by: JPandin at February 19, 2004 06:14 PM

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