The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
January 18, 2004
Command Post 2004 Polls | S.C. Primary News, 1/18

[Originally posted at Backcountry Conservative.]

Yesterday's Primary News

Today's Schedule:
1 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Greenwood, to discuss poverty plan, Workman's Restaurant, 611 East Cambridge Ave.
1 p.m., Al Sharpton, Dalzell, High Hills AME Church, 6780 Meeting House Road
2 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Saluda, town hall meeting, American Legion Post No. 65, 108 S. Rudolph St.
3:30 p.m., Joe Lieberman, Aiken, town hall meeting, Newberry Hall, 117 Newberry St
[Full Schedule can be found at the bottom of this post.]

News:
Kerry rebuilding his image in South Carolina in today's Greenville News (excerpts below.)

Today's Charleston Post & Courier discusses efforts by Democrats to court McCain supporters from 2000 (excerpts below.)

Today's Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports on potential crossover voting (excerpts below.)

Al Sharpton's role is discussed in today's Charlotte Observer (excerpts below.)

Dean discovers religion while on campaign trail (excerpts below.)

S.C. looms as decisive primary for Democrats (excerpts below.)

Kerry rebuilding his image in South Carolina in the Greenville News:

Charleston's Phil Noble, chairman of the state chapter of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council, attributes the shift to the grim logic of resource allocation.

"Kerry's got to do well somewhere early. He thought it could have been here, but it didn't come together." ...

...Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, faulted Kerry for backing off South Carolina until the 11th hour.

"Clark made a mistake by skipping Iowa; Kerry made a mistake by pulling out of South Carolina. Maybe one of the lessons of this cycle is that you should stay in and fight everywhere you possibly can for as long as you can," Sabato said.

After lining up impressive support early, particularly Sam Tenenbaum, a retired industrialist and renowned fund-raiser and organizer, Kerry "then totally disappeared," Sabato said.

Brad Gomez of the University of South Carolina said Kerry had no choice but to go all out in New Hampshire.

"If he doesn't have a top three showing in New Hampshire, he might be out. It's a neighboring state where he's supposed to do well. If he can't meet expectations there, how does he sell himself elsewhere?

Gomez said until the Iowa surge, Kerry "had an incredibly hard time getting traction," and not just in South Carolina.

"Early on, people saw him as a leading contender. For a Massachusetts senator, you might have thought he had the ability to sell himself in South Carolina, with a solid civil rights record, strong military record. He should have had some strength here."...

Charleston Post & Courier on Courting of McCain Voters:

Representatives of several camps said last week they will be making appeals to McCain voters in the coming days, asking them to take part in the Feb. 3 Democratic primary if their anti-George Bush sentiments from 2000 remain high.

Retired Gen. Wesley Clark's campaign is one of them....

...State Rep. Jim Merrill, R-Daniel Island, ran McCain's South Carolina effort in 2000.

He said there may be some minimal dividends in chasing the old McCain crowd but doubted there were many around who are still angry enough to come out in a Democratic vote.

"People who vote in primaries are historically hard-core," he said, contending that the Democrats' Feb. 3 primary was set up for activists and party faithful who support the leftward leanings of the party platform.

Atlanta-Journal Constitution on potential crossover voting:

The Feb. 3 primary is "the only game in town," said John Zogby, president of the Zogby International polling firm. "Republicans and independents will vote."

South Carolina is one of 12 states, including Georgia, that allow members of the opposition party and independents to vote in partisan primaries and caucuses, he said.

A December survey taken by Zogby International found 65 percent of those likely to vote in South Carolina's primary were Democrats, 16 percent Republicans and 17 percent independents....

...In fact, the state Republican Party is urging its members to avoid the voting. "Go to work, make some money, but stay away from the Democratic primary," is the advice from Luke Byars, state GOP executive director.

Curtis Gans, director of the Washington-based Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, said organized efforts of any significance to embarrass an opposition party through crossover votes are rare.

Still, there's some history of crossover voting in South Carolina. In the hard-fought 2000 Republican primary battle between George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain of Arizona, 9 percent of the voters were Democrats and 30 percent were independents. The crossover votes went heavily for McCain, but Bush won.

Charlotte Observer on Al Sharpton's role:

Political observers say Sharpton's objective isn't to be elected president, but rather to assume the role that Jesse Jackson played in the 1984 and 1988 elections.

"He wants to call the shots when it comes to the black community," said University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato, who studies presidential politics. "He wants a seat at the table; he wants to have some resources given to him."

For Sharpton to have the broker's role he covets, Sabato said, "He has to do well in South Carolina; he's counting on it."

The State on Dean's Religion:

“I'm still learning a lot about faith and the South and how important it is,” he told reporters en route to a campaign stop in South Carolina. He made it clear he would mention God more in the coming weeks.

Sure enough, he did.

Dean seemed uncomfortable talking about his faith. He told an Iowa audience that he prays daily.

He named Job as his favorite New Testament book. Oops. Job’s in the Old Testament.

"I'm a New Englander, so I'm not used to wearing religion on my sleeve and being as open about it," Dean explained....

..."Dean sees the handwriting on the wall; if he doesn't get religious, he doesn't do well in the South," said Charles Dunn, a political science professor at Grove City College in Pennsylvania, an expert on the role of religious conservatives in party politics....

...Religion is important to South Carolinians of both political parties. Exit polls in 2000 showed that 45 percent of Republicans identified themselves as Christian conservatives. Another poll shows that a third of the likely Democratic primary voters attend church regularly....

..."I believe it is a general election move based upon the assumption that if he's going to win the election he can't appear to be so secular next to Bush," Francis Marion University analyst Neal Thigpen said.

Clemson University professor Dave Woodard says Dean is not going to connect with evangelicals no matter how hard he tries. They are with Bush.

The State on South Carolina's role as a decisive primary:

"It would be hard to blow it out of proportion; South Carolina is absolutely critical," said Whit Ayres,a top Republican pollster working in Columbia last week.

"It's where the press is focusing its attention. It's where the candidates are focusing their attention. It's seen as significant because it's the first primary in the South and the first primary with significant African-American participation."...

...This is South Carolina's moment, said Clemson University political science professor Bruce Ransom, who noted the state won’t likely help Democrats in November.

The last time the state went Democratic in a presidential election was 1976, with Jimmy Carter.

But S.C. Democrats wield power in the primaries.

For the eventual nominee, Ransom said, "South Carolina could seal it."...

..."I originally had questions as to whether South Carolina was actually going to be a milestone event," said Bill Carrick, an Aiken native who is a senior strategist for Gephardt.

"Now, it looks like Iowa and New Hampshire are going to turn out to be inconclusive and you will have multiple candidates come to South Carolina for a major showdown."

But will that showdown whittle the field to one man? When it's all over, will South Carolina Democrats rightfully claim to have chosen the Democratic nominee?

"That’s potentially true," said Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina. "On the Republican side, it has been true. For both Bushes (the former and current president) ... South Carolina has been the clincher."

Remaining Schedule:
1/19: Al Sharpton
1/19: Wes Clark, Columbia
1/20: 3 p.m. Dick Gephardt, Charleston, ILA Union Hall, 1142 Morrison Drive
1/23: 2:30 p.m., Meet-and-greet with John Edwards, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/28: John Edwards
1/29: John Edwards
1/29: 12 noon, Lunch forum with Wesley Clark, Margarette H. Miller Cosmetology Center, 1509 Fontaine Road, Columbia
1/29: Democratic Primary Debate, Peace Center for the Performing Arts, Greenville
1/30: 8:30 p.m., John Edwards - Hootie & the Blowfish Concert, Jillian’s, 800 Gervais St., Columbia

Complete coverage at Google News and SC Hotline.

Yesterday's Primary News



Posted by Jeff Quinton at January 18, 2004 01:32 PM | TrackBack
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