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2004 US Presidential Election
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January 16, 2004
Dean | Dean's Growing Trouble

According to Zogby's three day NH tracking poll Dean has lost fully 10 percentage points in little more than a week (down from 39% to 29%). Clark on the other hand has gained 10 (from 14% to 24%). Clark is now on the cusp of a statistical tie with Dean and with the Iowa outcome in question, Dean has real trouble. His surge to "front-runner" status may have done him in, for now he is expected to win. All Kerry has to do in Iowa is make a good showing. Dean has to win.

If Dean underperforms, he could very well lose, not only Iowa, but also New Hampshire. This would mean near death for the campaign. After all, the mantra of Dean's opposition is that "he can't win". Nothing like a couple of loses (regardless of the margin) to prove that point. Dean could easily have avoided this fate by "Forgeting Iowa" as I advised him to do in November. There is an on going discussion about the importance of the Iowa caucuses. They don't reflect how the nomination will turn out. It's not even a real vote, its an activist vote. But Dean, the "front-runner" has given it meaning by staying in the race. The only reason we care about the Iowa caucuses is because Dean is there and Dean's inability to recognize that could cost him the nomination.



Posted by Mike Van Winkle at January 16, 2004 08:57 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Hey.. Nobody ever said Howard Dean was smart.

Posted by: Jeff MacMillan at January 17, 2004 12:13 AM

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