The Command Post
2004 US Presidential Election
December 23, 2003
| DICK MORRIS PREDICTIONS

Dick Morris joins the fray, predicting that "a landslide victory for Bush [is] quite possible if Howard Dean wins the Democratic nod" and that the GOP should make strong gains in the House and Senate. Noting the retirement of five key Democratic Senators and recent polling and demographic shifts, Morris estimates,

The most likely result would be a Republican gain of three or four, knocking the Democrats down to only 44 or 45 seats, barely enough to sustain a filibuster. If Bush wipes out Dean in a landslide, the Democrats could fall even lower, although it seems unlikely that they would drop below the magic number of 40 needed to oppose closure on Democratic filibusters.

Republicans will keep control of the House easily; the reapportionment of 2002 assures GOP control for the rest of the decade. In a series of state deals, Republicans and Democrats both agreed to put Democratic voters into districts now represented by Democrats. The Republicans liked the idea because it gave them permanent control of the House. Democrats loved it because it assured them of lifetime tenure in the lower house. (The only reason the Senate is so competitive is that the politicians can't gerrymander state lines!)

This analysis is quite reasonabe given present trends. Of course, any number of things could still happen in the next ten months. But with things looking up on both the economic and foreign policy fronts, it seems unlikely the voters will want to dump the party in power.

Cross-post from OTB



Posted by at December 23, 2003 02:45 PM | TrackBack
Comments

Illinois is a lock for the democrats. The GOP is still in disarray over the George Ryan fiasco and for some reason aparently every republican in the state’s last name is Ryan. They ran Jim Ryan for the governorship last year and he got clobbered, they are probably going to run Jack Ryan for the vacated seat this fall. No-one in the party seems to realize that most voters arent paying enough attention to differentiate between the Ryans. I’m having trouble myself. Add the army of the dead Daley will raise in Cook County and the Dems will pick up a seat in Illinois.

Posted by: Mark Buehner at December 23, 2003 04:04 PM

There’s way too much time left to make any predictions. It’s like college football - everyone had Oklahoma picked to go undefeated as one of the best teams in history. Then they met Kansas State. In football, they say “that’s why they play the game”. In politics, they say “that’s why they vote”.

Posted by: middleman at December 23, 2003 05:11 PM

Maybe.

But Mr. Morris has established a good record, and there’s no question he knows his stuff.

Also, Mr. Gore’s antics have certainly not been fogotten by the GOP. This time there will be no assumptions or coasting.

Posted by: Daniel at December 23, 2003 06:06 PM

Here’s a little message for our liberal buddies. It’s a little ‘religious’, but the thought goes farther than religion. It goes for using common sense and not letting a minority of morons dictate what we do and don’t do:

MAJORITY

I don’t believe in Santa Claus, but I’m not going to sue somebody
for singing a Ho-Ho-Ho song in December.
I don’t agree with Darwin, but I didn’t go out and hire a lawyer
when my high school teacher taught his theory of evolution.
Life, liberty, or your pursuit of happiness, will not be endangered
because someone says a 30-second prayer before a football game. So
what’s the big deal? It’s not like somebody is up there reading the
entire book of Acts. They’re just talking to a God they believe in
and asking him to grant safety to the players on the field and the
fans going home from the game. “But it’s a Christian prayer,” some
will argue. Yes, and this is the United States of America, a country
founded on Christian principles. And we are in the Bible Belt.
According to our very own phone book, Christian churches outnumber all
others better than 200-to-1. So what would you expect somebody
chanting Hare Krishna? If I went to a football game in Jerusalem, I would
expect to hear a Jewish prayer. If I went to a soccer game in Baghdad,
I would expect to hear a Muslim prayer. If I went to a ping pong match
in China, I would expect to hear someone pray to Buddha. And I wouldn’t
be offended. It wouldn’t bother me one bit. When in Rome……..
“But what about the atheists?” is another argument. What about them?
Nobody is asking them to be baptized. We’re not going to pass the
collection plate. Just humor us for 30 seconds. If that’s asking too much,
bring a Walkman or a pair of ear plugs. Go to the bathroom. Visit the
concession stand. Call your lawyer. Unfortunately, one or two will make
that call. One or two will tell thousands what they can and cannot do.
I don’t think a short prayer at a football game is going to shake the
world’s foundations. Christians are just sick and tired of turning the
other cheek while our courts strip us of all our rights. Our parents and
grandparents taught us to pray before eating, to pray before we go to sleep.
Our Bible tells us just to pray without ceasing. Now a handful of people and
their lawyers are telling us to cease praying. God, help us.
And if that last sentence offends you, well……….just sue me. The silent
majority has been silent too long. It’s time we let, that one or two who scream loud
enough to be heard, know that the vast majority don’t care what they want.. it is time
the majority rules! It’s time we tell them, you don’t have to pray, you don’t
have to say the pledge of allegiance, you don’t have to believe in God or attend
services that honor Him. That is your right, and we will honor your right.. but
by golly you are no longer going to take our rights away. We are fighting back..
and we WILL WIN! After all, the God you have the right to denounce is on our side!
God bless us one and all, especially those who denounce Him…

God bless America, despite all her faults.. still the greatest
nation of all…..

God bless our service men who are fighting to protect our right to
pray and worship God…and others to pray and worship what they wish.

God bless George Bush and his staff for having the courage to stand up against
evil and those countries that sell us out for their own financial gains.

May 2004 be the year the silent majority is heard and we put God
back as the foundation of our families and institutions.

Keep looking up…… In God WE Trust

Posted by: Jeff B at December 24, 2003 06:35 AM

Jeff B…Amen and Amen.

Posted by: alaskasoldier at December 25, 2003 02:27 PM

Uh- oh. The one thing I know about Dick Morris is that he is consistently wrong. He predicted the Democrats would gain seats in Congress in 2002. I am now genuinely worried that W. may lose.

Posted by: John at December 28, 2003 06:32 AM

After George W. Bush was appointed president in December 2000 he needed an event like 9-11-01 to establish his legitimacy. Post 9-11 I supported Mr. Bush as the leader of the free world and my president, but once his approval rating began to sink again he needed another “flag waving” event. The answer to that was the preemptive unilateral war with Iraq I call “Operation Increase Poll Numbers”. The shooting gallery situation in Iraq/The leaking of the CIA agents name/Paul O’Neill revelations all paint the picture of a dishonest administration. The bounce of the Saddam Hussein capture has faded and we are in 2004, will the Bush Administration distract us from 3 million jobs lost, a global distrust for the United States, and 500 Billion Dollar defecit, a disasterous environmental policy, all the fruits of a ill-gotten presidency. Wake up people and don’t be fooled twice.

Posted by: Veronica at January 16, 2004 09:51 PM

Bush will peobably win this close election. Kerry won’t be able to shake off his poor record in the Senate. In the debates, Bush will come across as more of the average joe kind of guy and Kerry will be stiff and boring, like he always is. Nader will get less votes than he did last time, but still enough to piss off the Dems. These are all symptoms of a decaying Democratic Party. The libs are not quite finished however. Their control of the courts will usher in a new era of judicial fiat where ‘God’ will be taken out of public life and marriage will basically be defined as a union between anyone and anything willing. It does not matter how many times the forces of the Left-wing fringe are defeated by the voters, because with control of the courts, they have control direction the country is going.

Posted by: Ron at March 22, 2004 01:49 AM

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