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2004 US Presidential Election
December 23, 2003
| DICK MORRIS PREDICTIONS
Dick Morris joins the fray, predicting that "a landslide victory for Bush [is] quite possible if Howard Dean wins the Democratic nod" and that the GOP should make strong gains in the House and Senate. Noting the retirement of five key Democratic Senators and recent polling and demographic shifts, Morris estimates, The most likely result would be a Republican gain of three or four, knocking the Democrats down to only 44 or 45 seats, barely enough to sustain a filibuster. If Bush wipes out Dean in a landslide, the Democrats could fall even lower, although it seems unlikely that they would drop below the magic number of 40 needed to oppose closure on Democratic filibusters.This analysis is quite reasonabe given present trends. Of course, any number of things could still happen in the next ten months. But with things looking up on both the economic and foreign policy fronts, it seems unlikely the voters will want to dump the party in power. Cross-post from OTB Posted by at December 23, 2003 02:45 PM | TrackBack Comments
Illinois is a lock for the democrats. The GOP is still in disarray over the George Ryan fiasco and for some reason aparently every republican in the state’s last name is Ryan. They ran Jim Ryan for the governorship last year and he got clobbered, they are probably going to run Jack Ryan for the vacated seat this fall. No-one in the party seems to realize that most voters arent paying enough attention to differentiate between the Ryans. I’m having trouble myself. Add the army of the dead Daley will raise in Cook County and the Dems will pick up a seat in Illinois. Posted by: Mark Buehner at December 23, 2003 04:04 PM There’s way too much time left to make any predictions. It’s like college football - everyone had Oklahoma picked to go undefeated as one of the best teams in history. Then they met Kansas State. In football, they say “that’s why they play the game”. In politics, they say “that’s why they vote”. Posted by: middleman at December 23, 2003 05:11 PM Maybe. But Mr. Morris has established a good record, and there’s no question he knows his stuff. Also, Mr. Gore’s antics have certainly not been fogotten by the GOP. This time there will be no assumptions or coasting. Posted by: Daniel at December 23, 2003 06:06 PM Here’s a little message for our liberal buddies. It’s a little ‘religious’, but the thought goes farther than religion. It goes for using common sense and not letting a minority of morons dictate what we do and don’t do: MAJORITY I don’t believe in Santa Claus, but I’m not going to sue somebody God bless America, despite all her faults.. still the greatest God bless our service men who are fighting to protect our right to God bless George Bush and his staff for having the courage to stand up against May 2004 be the year the silent majority is heard and we put God Keep looking up…… In God WE Trust Posted by: Jeff B at December 24, 2003 06:35 AM Jeff B…Amen and Amen. Posted by: alaskasoldier at December 25, 2003 02:27 PM Uh- oh. The one thing I know about Dick Morris is that he is consistently wrong. He predicted the Democrats would gain seats in Congress in 2002. I am now genuinely worried that W. may lose. Posted by: John at December 28, 2003 06:32 AM After George W. Bush was appointed president in December 2000 he needed an event like 9-11-01 to establish his legitimacy. Post 9-11 I supported Mr. Bush as the leader of the free world and my president, but once his approval rating began to sink again he needed another “flag waving” event. The answer to that was the preemptive unilateral war with Iraq I call “Operation Increase Poll Numbers”. The shooting gallery situation in Iraq/The leaking of the CIA agents name/Paul O’Neill revelations all paint the picture of a dishonest administration. The bounce of the Saddam Hussein capture has faded and we are in 2004, will the Bush Administration distract us from 3 million jobs lost, a global distrust for the United States, and 500 Billion Dollar defecit, a disasterous environmental policy, all the fruits of a ill-gotten presidency. Wake up people and don’t be fooled twice. Posted by: Veronica at January 16, 2004 09:51 PM Bush will peobably win this close election. Kerry won’t be able to shake off his poor record in the Senate. In the debates, Bush will come across as more of the average joe kind of guy and Kerry will be stiff and boring, like he always is. Nader will get less votes than he did last time, but still enough to piss off the Dems. These are all symptoms of a decaying Democratic Party. The libs are not quite finished however. Their control of the courts will usher in a new era of judicial fiat where ‘God’ will be taken out of public life and marriage will basically be defined as a union between anyone and anything willing. It does not matter how many times the forces of the Left-wing fringe are defeated by the voters, because with control of the courts, they have control direction the country is going. Posted by: Ron at March 22, 2004 01:49 AM Post a comment
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