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2004 US Presidential Election
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November 11, 2003
| Josh Marshall on Dean's Chances

Joshua Marshall has some pretty good points about Dean's "frontrunner" status over at TPM Especially this one:

Dean clearly now has the biggest constituency. It's activated, mobilized and it's big. But he's in a large field. I think there's a much larger slice of the Democratic primary electorate that doesn't want him than the one that does. And as the field narrows, that will become the salient fact.
I would add to this that that slice that doesn't want to see him win the candidacy is made up of Democratic insiders. If this thing somehow gets down to a brokered convention (which might be possible given the new primary system) this could be a big factor.

Read Marshall's full post.



Posted by Mike Van Winkle at November 11, 2003 07:45 AM | TrackBack
Comments

Dont underestimate the power of the democratic machines. The Daleys can still deliver Illinois, the Kennedys Mass, ect ect ect. If the old bosses decide to bestir themselves Dean will have a problem.

Posted by: Mark Buehner at November 11, 2003 03:24 PM

Insiders and outsiders. Similar to the fate of John McCain’s campaign run in 2000. Men who connect to ‘independent’ voters. And, they’re gong to be necessary in the future to win anything. The democrats have imploded. Possibly do to the fact that they don’t have manly men?

The women (Pelosi, Feinstein, and Boxer), here, in democratic California, just had their kiesters handed to them. But how to the Bitter Women’s Society and the “Metro” males deal with strategy? History is not repleat with successful examples of strategizers who were not White Males. That’s just a fact.

Also, Bush is the president. We are at war! And, all the democrats have is an anti-war posture that even in 1968 ushered in Nixon, a republican president.

My guess is that the democrats are hoping to triangularize the race. I think Dean runs as an independent. And, the hope is that he makes the reublicans shed votes. If it doesn’t happen that way, please see the above comment, that women and less than Alpha-Males tend not to strategize battle plans all that well.

Posted by: Carol in California at November 11, 2003 06:55 PM

If Dean runs as independant assuming he doesn’t get the nomination, then that will steal a heck of a lot more democratic votes than swing Republican votes.

Just because Dean and the NRA are campaign buddies and legislation pals does not mean Dean’s influencing Republicans more than Dems. The vast majority of remotely conservative thinking people do not want the Government to take care of them. They know the role the Government should play in.

And Howard Dean’s ideology of the role of Government is 200% Liberal and that’s 150% too much.

Posted by: Jeff MacMillan at November 12, 2003 12:53 AM

If Dean runs as an independent he’ll be done. He’ll be the parriah, the Ross Perot of the left for 2004 - taking a huge chunk of Democratic votes away from Gephardt or Clark or whomever.

Posted by: Josh McClain at November 12, 2003 11:45 AM

In response to Carol’s “History is not repleat with successful examples of strategizers who were not White Males.” comment:

I’m Married. Let me tell you, women have been strategizing since the first days.

White males the only ones to strategize? Honestly, that is kind of a stupid comment. Do you think the people fighting our integrated armed forces believe that? How about the the battles in vietnam? How about black or female attorneys?

To suggest that only white males have any inherent skills or leadership acumen because of their Y chromosome and lack of melanin is rubbish.

-A white male in St. Louis, MO

Posted by: Foneso at November 14, 2003 10:17 PM

Foneso,

Thus speaks a NON-ALPHA Male!

That’s O.K. We have planned around

your kind for centuries!

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