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2004 US Presidential Election
June 22, 2003
The Latest Line
The latest 2004 Democratic Nomination Odds, courtesy Campaigns & Elections: Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 4 to 1I've placed the full analysis in the extended entry. DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINATION 2004 Sen. Hillary Clinton (NY), 4 to 1 (20% chance; chances downgraded Jan. 30 from 25%). She’s not a candidate, and is likely to stay out of this race. But her potential appeal remains considerable within Democratic ranks (particularly among blacks and women). If none of the other candidates take off, there could yet be a draft in her direction; that’s why we keep her in the mix. Sen. John Kerry (MA), 5 to 1 (16.7% chance). Overall, Kerry is doing the best among the contenders. He converts name recognition into votes better than anyone. But his path to the nomination remains fraught with serious obstacles. U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt (MO), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance). Chances upgraded from 10% on 4/17/03. Gephardt opened his campaign on a very strong footing; his health care proposal is bold, dramatic and risky politically. So far as a candidate, he’s handled himself like a real pro. If labor gets behind him, he’ll be a big force. Sen. Joe Lieberman (CT), 7 to 1 (12.5% chance; upgraded from 10% 5/9/03). Though many activist Democrats view Lieberman as being too conservative – he’s running somewhat to the right of the field – and that hurts him with many constituency groups (i.e., labor, blacks, trial lawyers, environmentalists, etc.). But his South Carolina debate performance was superb, and it gave his sagging candidacy new life and credibility. Gov. Howard Dean (VT), 10 to 1 (9.1% chance; downgraded from 10% chance 5/9/03). Dean has the most grassroots enthusiasm of any candidate, and that counts in democratic primaries and caucuses. His anti-war position has given him substantial national credibility among liberals. However, since the Iraqi victory, some of his statements on foreign affairs and military issues are coming close to marginalizing his candidacy -- possibly putting him into a danger zone not only for the general election but also the nomination battle. Sen. John Edwards (NC), 12 to 1 (7.7% change; downgraded from 8.3% chance 5/09/03). Though Edwards is perceived by many pundits and politicians as the most effective candidate of the bunch, he’s yet to demonstrate significant voter support. His performance as a candidate has, for the most part, fallen short of expectation. Though his large base of financial donors among trial lawyers gives his campaign reach and depth, his lack of state-by-state polling strength is telling. Sen. Bob Graham (FL), 20 to 1 (4.8% chance; downgraded from 6.3% chance 5/09/03). He has great experience as a governor and three-term U.S. senator, and his geographic base (vote-rich Florida) is an ideal launching pad. But he’s yet to find much of a voice, or an appealing message, in this race. His recent announcement fell flat. Constantly mentioned as a VP possibility. Gen. Wesley Clark, 100 to 1 (1% chance). Still mentioned as a possible candidate, but time’s running short on this novice politico. He did well on CNN during the war, and there are some Democrats who’d like to have a candidate with military credentials. Could end up running for the Senate or governor. Sen. Joe Biden (DE), 200 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Hasn’t gotten into the race and probably won’t, but could be an interesting late entrant if none of the top tier candidates get traction. Carol Moseley-Braun (IL), 500 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Though she has virtually no chance to win the nomination, her public appearances have been impressive. Her appeal to black women may garner for her a surprisingly sizable constituency. Rev. Al Sharpton (NY), 1,000 to 1 (less than 1% chance). He’s the best public speaker of the field; funny, hard-hitting, clever. But his controversial past eliminates him as a contender. Nonetheless, he will likely get more votes than most of the party’s Pooh-Bahs now expect. U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich (OH), 2,000 to 1 (less than 1% chance). Known as Dennis the Menace during his disastrous term as mayor of Cleveland, he’s firmly on the outside looking in. Someone else, 10 to 1 (9% chance) Posted by Alan at June 22, 2003 10:12 AM | TrackBack Comments
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